Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A less amplified flow regime is expected to evolve through at least early next week, with the strongest mid/upper-level westerlies generally confined to the northern CONUS. However, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture will persist across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley, which may occasionally be drawn northward in response to shortwave troughs moving through the primary belt of westerlies. While no synoptically evident severe thunderstorm episodes are currently apparent in extended-range guidance, some threat could evolve each day through at least mid week. ...D4/Monday - Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains on Monday, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. If the shortwave ends up being favorably timed with the diurnal cycle, then a few strong to severe storms will be possible from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with large hail and locally gusty winds likely being the primary threats. ...D5/Tuesday - Great Plains into the upper Midwest... Most extended-range guidance depicts a relatively strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low moving across the northern Plains on Tuesday. While stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent will likely be displaced north of the more favorable instability, a few strong storms could develop along the trailing cold front somewhere from the central Plains into the upper Midwest. ...D6/Wednesday - Parts of the central/southern Plains... The cold front that moves southeastward through the Great Plains region on Tuesday will likely stall on Wednesday and potentially move northward as a warm front, though guidance varies regarding the placement of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place along/south of the boundary during the afternoon, and modest westerly flow aloft may be marginally sufficient for a few strong to severe storms. ...D7/Thursday into D8/Friday... There is some potential for a stronger cold front to move into parts of the southern Plains and Southeast by the end of the week, though spread in extended-range guidance notably increases at this forecast range. If a stronger front does materialize, some strong to severe thunderstorms could accompany the front, with generally dry and stable conditions in its wake. Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0137 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0137 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI TO 75 NW ABI TO 55 S CDS TO 10 NE LTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 ..THORNTON..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-260840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-253-275-433-441-447-485-487-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL JONES KNOX STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI TO 75 NW ABI TO 55 S CDS TO 10 NE LTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 ..THORNTON..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-260840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-253-275-433-441-447-485-487-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL JONES KNOX STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI TO 75 NW ABI TO 55 S CDS TO 10 NE LTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 ..THORNTON..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-260840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-253-275-433-441-447-485-487-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL JONES KNOX STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI TO 75 NW ABI TO 55 S CDS TO 10 NE LTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 ..THORNTON..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-260840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-253-275-433-441-447-485-487-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL JONES KNOX STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI TO 75 NW ABI TO 55 S CDS TO 10 NE LTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 ..THORNTON..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-260840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-253-275-433-441-447-485-487-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL JONES KNOX STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ABI TO 75 NW ABI TO 55 S CDS TO 10 NE LTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522 ..THORNTON..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-260840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-253-275-433-441-447-485-487-260840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL JONES KNOX STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 135 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 260235Z - 260900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwestern Oklahoma West and northwest Texas * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 935 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms initially developing near the TX/NM line over the Permian Basin/South Plains region should move northeastward and evolve into an organized cluster or complex. Large to very large hail and sporadic severe gusts are possible the first few hours, transitioning to more of an organized wind threat with isolated large hail. A tornado or two also may occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Midland TX to 35 miles south of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 133... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23045. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across a broad area from northeast Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... A broad region of at least some severe potential is expected on Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley. Uncertainty remains high due to the influence of extensive antecedent convection leading into the D3/Sunday period. A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley on Sunday. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from Texas toward the lower MO Valley, and potentially farther north into parts of the upper Midwest. Some lingering severe threat could accompany this morning convection, especially toward the ArkLaTex region where somewhat more favorable moisture/instability will be in place. Widespread cloudiness/convection across much of the warm sector will tend to limit diurnal destabilization, though deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms, and some heating/destabilization will be possible in the wake of morning convection. One area of potential redevelopment will be immediately ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough from eastern KS into western MO and southern IA, where a few stronger cells/clusters could pose a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Vigorous redevelopment will also be possible along the western/southern periphery of persistent convection near the ArkLaTex region, where rich moisture and favorable wind profiles could support at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards. Some threat could linger into Sunday night across this area, potentially aided by an upstream low-amplitude shortwave trough that will be approaching the southern Plains. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across a broad area from northeast Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... A broad region of at least some severe potential is expected on Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley. Uncertainty remains high due to the influence of extensive antecedent convection leading into the D3/Sunday period. A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley on Sunday. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from Texas toward the lower MO Valley, and potentially farther north into parts of the upper Midwest. Some lingering severe threat could accompany this morning convection, especially toward the ArkLaTex region where somewhat more favorable moisture/instability will be in place. Widespread cloudiness/convection across much of the warm sector will tend to limit diurnal destabilization, though deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms, and some heating/destabilization will be possible in the wake of morning convection. One area of potential redevelopment will be immediately ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough from eastern KS into western MO and southern IA, where a few stronger cells/clusters could pose a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Vigorous redevelopment will also be possible along the western/southern periphery of persistent convection near the ArkLaTex region, where rich moisture and favorable wind profiles could support at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards. Some threat could linger into Sunday night across this area, potentially aided by an upstream low-amplitude shortwave trough that will be approaching the southern Plains. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday across a broad area from northeast Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. ...Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... A broad region of at least some severe potential is expected on Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley. Uncertainty remains high due to the influence of extensive antecedent convection leading into the D3/Sunday period. A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley on Sunday. Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from Texas toward the lower MO Valley, and potentially farther north into parts of the upper Midwest. Some lingering severe threat could accompany this morning convection, especially toward the ArkLaTex region where somewhat more favorable moisture/instability will be in place. Widespread cloudiness/convection across much of the warm sector will tend to limit diurnal destabilization, though deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms, and some heating/destabilization will be possible in the wake of morning convection. One area of potential redevelopment will be immediately ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough from eastern KS into western MO and southern IA, where a few stronger cells/clusters could pose a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Vigorous redevelopment will also be possible along the western/southern periphery of persistent convection near the ArkLaTex region, where rich moisture and favorable wind profiles could support at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards. Some threat could linger into Sunday night across this area, potentially aided by an upstream low-amplitude shortwave trough that will be approaching the southern Plains. ..Dean.. 04/26/2024 Read more