Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM. ...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM. ...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM. ...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, while an accompanying 60-70-kt midlevel southwesterly jet overspreads southern NM and the southern High Plains. This will promote rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over eastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will yield an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the aforementioned areas, with high-end critical conditions expected over eastern NM. ...Southern New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... Behind the sharpening dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will contribute to a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will yield an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions, given modestly receptive fuels. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest relative humidity is expected over eastern NM, where extremely critical meteorological conditions are likely. However, a lack of abundant and very dry fuels over the area precludes such highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies. ...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO... Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible, both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can materialize. ...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO... Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning, accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado. ...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX... As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies. ...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO... Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible, both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can materialize. ...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO... Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning, accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado. ...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX... As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies. ...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO... Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible, both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can materialize. ...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO... Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning, accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado. ...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX... As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies. ...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO... Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible, both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can materialize. ...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO... Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning, accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado. ...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX... As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies. ...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO... Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible, both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can materialize. ...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO... Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning, accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado. ...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX... As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies. ...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO... Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time. In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible, both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA. Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can materialize. ...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO... Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning, accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat. Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards. Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado. ...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX... As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this time for probabilities. ..Dean.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the southern CA/Baja Peninsula Coast. 70+kt 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern Gulf of CA early in the period before advancing into the southern high Plains at 26/00z, and central KS by sunrise Friday. In response to this feature, lee surface low will reposition itself into eastern CO by late afternoon. While LLJ won't be particularly strong through 26/00z, boundary layer will moisten significantly across the central High Plains into northeast CO prior to the approaching jet. Surface temperatures will warm rapidly across eastern CO such that convective temperatures will be breached by 21z, favorably timed with the left exit region of the jet. 60F surface dew points have spread into the northeast TX Panhandle early this morning, and should advance into northwest KS prior to expected supercell initiation. Model forecast soundings exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for organized rotating updrafts and the dry line will be the primary focus for initiation. Very large hail is expected with this activity along with tornadoes, a few potentially strong. LLJ will strengthen along the I35 corridor from north TX into NE during the overnight hours. There will be some propensity for the western KS convection to spread/develop downstream as low-level warm advection increases during the latter half of the period. Farther south along the dry line, it appears a secondary, bimodal corridor of convection will evolve over west/northwest TX during the late-evening hours. Deep convection may initially struggle to evolve along the dry line as some inhibition should linger beyond sunset. However, large-scale height falls will influence this region by late evening and profiles will adjust. Thunderstorms are expected to develop shortly thereafter with initial activity being supercellular in nature. With time, upscale growth may lead to an MCS-type cluster that should track northeast across the southern Plains. Very large hail is possible with the early development, but a transition to more wind could occur late. Additionally, some tornado risk will continue overnight despite lifted parcels likely becoming somewhat elevated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...01z Update... Extensive mid-high cloudiness appears to be partly responsible for the lack of deep boundary-layer cu across the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin early this evening. While surface temperatures warmed into the mid 80s across the Permian Basin, weak inhibition persists across this region. 00z sounding from MAF supports this, with a warm layer at 700mb serving as a cap for surface-based parcels. While several HREF members suggested deep convection would have developed by early evening, there is some concern that deep convection may remain quite isolated, if it does develop at this latitude. As LLJ strengthens across the High Plains tonight there should be an increase in elevated convection farther north across portions of OK/KS. Storms that develop due to warm advection could generate marginally severe hail. Will maintain low severe probabilities to account for these scenarios. ..Darrow.. 04/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe gusts remain possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...01z Update... Extensive mid-high cloudiness appears to be partly responsible for the lack of deep boundary-layer cu across the TX South Plains into the Permian Basin early this evening. While surface temperatures warmed into the mid 80s across the Permian Basin, weak inhibition persists across this region. 00z sounding from MAF supports this, with a warm layer at 700mb serving as a cap for surface-based parcels. While several HREF members suggested deep convection would have developed by early evening, there is some concern that deep convection may remain quite isolated, if it does develop at this latitude. As LLJ strengthens across the High Plains tonight there should be an increase in elevated convection farther north across portions of OK/KS. Storms that develop due to warm advection could generate marginally severe hail. Will maintain low severe probabilities to account for these scenarios. ..Darrow.. 04/25/2024 Read more