Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes... An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above. A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential. ...D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest... A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley... Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes... An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above. A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential. ...D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest... A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley... Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes... An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above. A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential. ...D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest... A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley... Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes... An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above. A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential. ...D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest... A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley... Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes... An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above. A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential. ...D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest... A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley... Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes... An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above. A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential. ...D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest... A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley... Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days. Read more

The wheat crop in northwest Oklahoma was struggling amid a dry spell ranging from 80 to 105 days for some towns. Ponds for livestock were dropping quickly in some areas. KOCO 5 News (Oklahoma City, Okla.), April 23, 2024

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection. ...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley... A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm sector. Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across northern portions of the risk area. Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection. ...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley... A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm sector. Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across northern portions of the risk area. Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection. ...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley... A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm sector. Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across northern portions of the risk area. Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection. ...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley... A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm sector. Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across northern portions of the risk area. Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection. ...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley... A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm sector. Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across northern portions of the risk area. Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated occluding surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA, though its progress may be slowed by convective outflow resulting from extensive D2/Thursday convection. ...Central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley... A relatively active severe weather day appears possible from eastern portions of the Great Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Ozarks on Friday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the impact of extensive antecedent convection on the quality of the warm sector. Thunderstorms that develop late on D2/Thursday may be ongoing during the morning from eastern KS into central/eastern OK and north TX. At least some severe threat may persist through the morning with this convection, as it spreads into parts of MO/AR. With favorable deep-layer shear across the warm sector, some intensification of early convection will be possible during the afternoon, though there may be a tendency for storms to move eastward out of the primary instability axis. The strongest storms across eastern portions of the warm sector could pose at least some threat for all severe hazards, though magnitude of the threat remains uncertain. With the dryline not expected to make a strong eastward push, some redevelopment cannot be ruled out later in the day. Depending on heating and destabilization trends, supercell development will be possible from eastern NE/western IA southward into the ArkLaTex region. Large hail (potentially in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and could accompany any supercell development in this area, given the persistence of rich low-level moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Persistent moderate to strong low-level flow/shear will also support tornado potential, especially if supercells can be sustained near the ejecting shortwave and surface low across northern portions of the risk area. Southwestward extent of the severe threat during the afternoon/evening remains uncertain. Development cannot be entirely ruled out from central OK into north/central TX along the nearly stalled dryline, though coverage would likely remain very isolated in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights across the area. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more