SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights across the area. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights across the area. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights across the area. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights across the area. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough, accompanied by strong southwesterly flow aloft, will move into the Southwest today. As this strong flow overspreads a deep/dry boundary layer across the region, dry/breezy conditions can be expected during the afternoon. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, fuels generally do not support large-fire spread at this time -- precluding highlights across the area. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day, though convective outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into central KS/OK and north TX. Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day, providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe potential. Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell development will be possible by late afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin impinging on the warm sector from the east. Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado or two. Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day, though convective outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into central KS/OK and north TX. Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day, providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe potential. Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell development will be possible by late afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin impinging on the warm sector from the east. Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado or two. Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day, though convective outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into central KS/OK and north TX. Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day, providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe potential. Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell development will be possible by late afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin impinging on the warm sector from the east. Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado or two. Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day, though convective outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into central KS/OK and north TX. Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day, providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe potential. Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell development will be possible by late afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin impinging on the warm sector from the east. Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado or two. Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day, though convective outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into central KS/OK and north TX. Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day, providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe potential. Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell development will be possible by late afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin impinging on the warm sector from the east. Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado or two. Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially over the Southwest is still forecast to take on an increasingly negative tilt as it moves eastward towards the central/southern Plains by Thursday night into Friday morning. In response, a deepening surface low will move from the central High Plains toward northwest KS/southwest NE by late Thursday night into Friday morning. A surface boundary will move northward as a warm front across the central Plains through the day, though convective outflow may limit its progress across parts of central/western KS. Along/south of the warm front, relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward to the east of a dryline that will become established from the eastern TX Panhandle into western KS and eastern CO. ...Southern/central Great Plains... Potential for a few intense supercells remains evident across western KS into western OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a threat for very large hail, severe wind gusts, and possibly a couple of strong tornadoes. Isolated supercells will also be possible into parts of northwest KS, southwest NE, and northeast CO. Some overnight severe potential also remains evident farther east into central KS/OK and north TX. Substantial convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern KS/OK. While this convection will likely remain elevated, some threat for hail and isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out through much of the day.This convection may persist through much of the day, driven by persistent low-level warm advection to the cool side of the effective outflow. Should this occur, outflow may tend to spread westward through the day, providing a limit to the eastward extent of higher-end severe potential. Otherwise, a favorable conditional supercell environment is still expected to develop along/ahead of the dryline from western KS/OK into the OK/TX Panhandles, as low-level and deep-layer shear increase across a moderately to strongly unstable environment. While stronger ascent may not arrive across a broader portion of the central/southern Great Plains until evening, isolated supercell development will be possible by late afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support an initial threat of very large hail. The tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with time and eastward extent, and any longer-lived supercells could pose a strong tornado threat. Uncertainty remains regarding the number of supercells that develop, and the longevity of any such cells into the evening given that outflow may begin impinging on the warm sector from the east. Another round of potentially severe storms may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning along the Pacific front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection with this activity, which may tend to become linear with time. The overnight storms could pose some threat for all severe hazards, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain due to lingering near-surface stability and the unfavorable time of day. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Near/north of the deepening surface, relatively moist low-level southeasterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support increasing instability through the day. Favorable deep-layer shear will support isolated supercell potential by mid/late afternoon across northeast CO and adjacent portions of southwest NE and northwest KS. Very large hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter) will likely be the primary threat, though cells in the vicinity of the effective warm front will also be capable of producing a tornado or two. Farther north, moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be weaker in this area, but may still be sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK. Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. ...OK - This Morning... Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east. ...West TX toward SW OK - This evening... Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop. ...Northern OK - Late Tonight... As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail. ...Northeast... While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK. Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. ...OK - This Morning... Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east. ...West TX toward SW OK - This evening... Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop. ...Northern OK - Late Tonight... As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail. ...Northeast... While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK. Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. ...OK - This Morning... Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east. ...West TX toward SW OK - This evening... Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop. ...Northern OK - Late Tonight... As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail. ...Northeast... While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK. Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. ...OK - This Morning... Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east. ...West TX toward SW OK - This evening... Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop. ...Northern OK - Late Tonight... As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail. ...Northeast... While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK. Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. ...OK - This Morning... Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east. ...West TX toward SW OK - This evening... Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop. ...Northern OK - Late Tonight... As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail. ...Northeast... While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK. Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. ...OK - This Morning... Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east. ...West TX toward SW OK - This evening... Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop. ...Northern OK - Late Tonight... As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail. ...Northeast... While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 24, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the Rockies will shift east into the Plains through tonight. However, guidance suggests subtle shortwave impulses will migrate through the ridge during the late afternoon into the evening/overnight. At the surface, strengthening lee troughing is forecast across eastern NM near the TX border. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary is forecast to extend across the TX South Plains vicinity into southern/central OK, while a dryline extends southward along the NM/TX border into southwest TX. Several forecast models suggest a bulge in the dryline is possible across far west TX where a weak surface low may develop. Overnight, the stationary boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front, becoming located across the TX Panhandle into northern OK. Further east, an upper trough will move across the Northeast states. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, though midlevel moisture will be plentiful. Cool temperatures aloft and modest westerly flow will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. ...OK - This Morning... Thunderstorms are expected to develop early this morning across central OK north of the stationary boundary in a warm advection regime along the north edge of returning low-level moisture. This activity is expected to be elevated. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing westerly mid/upper flow should be sufficient for organized cells. Large hail will be possible with storms that develop. However, coverage remains in question given expected height rises through the morning hours as the upper ridge slowly shifts east. ...West TX toward SW OK - This evening... Capping will preclude convection for most of the day. However, low-level moisture will increase with northwest extent on southeasterly low-level flow, and low 60s F dewpoints are expected into the Permian Basin and South Plains vicinity. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moistening boundary-layer will foster moderate instability from 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon/early evening, convection should begin to develop as inhibition weakens due to increasing moisture and some indication of a weak impulse ejecting east across the southern Rockies. Veering low-level wind profiles become west/southwesterly aloft will result in favorable shear profiles supporting supercells. Large hail to 2 inches in diameter and gusts to 70 mph will be possible with storms that develop. ...Northern OK - Late Tonight... As the stationary boundary lifts northward as a warm front overnight, another round of warm advection thunderstorms will be possible, this time from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding coverage and location of potential development, though the overall environment (moderate elevated instability and modest shear) conditionally will support hail. ...Northeast... While boundary-layer moisture will remain poor today, cold temperatures aloft will support weak instability. Deep-layer westerly flow around 20-30 kt may support transient organized cells/clusters by early afternoon. Meanwhile, heating ahead of the cold front will allow for steepening low-level lapse rates. Gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible with afternoon thunderstorms, but overall severe potential appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/24/2024 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S BGS TO 20 WNW ABI TO 5 WNW MWL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510 ..WEINMAN..04/24/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-083-353-399-417-429-441-240240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COLEMAN NOLAN RUNNELS SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 510

1 year 3 months ago
MD 0510 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0510 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Northwest into Central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132... Valid 240142Z - 240245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts and isolated large hail remain possible for the next hour or two in Northwest/Central Texas. DISCUSSION...A locally upscale-grown cluster (with embedded supercell structures) has evolved over Northwest TX this evening, and will continue tracking southeastward during the next 1-2 hours. Given the slightly larger cold pool that has developed on the eastern periphery of a steep low-level lapse-rate plume, severe gusts up to 65 mph are the main concern. Isolated large hail is also possible in the deeper embedded cores. This storm cluster is moving into increasing MLCINH owing to the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer cooling, and the severe risk should generally weaken with time. Convective trends are being monitored for a local spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132, though this is not currently expected for reasons above. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31700038 32050049 32260036 32240004 32379983 32799953 32789927 32689902 32579879 32389869 32099870 31779875 31399925 31369979 31480011 31700038 Read more