SPC Apr 23, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. Additional strong storms producing hail to near 1 inch diameter and 60 mph gusts are possible from southeast Wisconsin and northern Illinois into Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast today. Meanwhile, upper ridging will be focused over the Rockies. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure is forecast from Quebec to the Upper MS Valley. A secondary surface low is forecast to develop over the TX Panhandle/South Plains. A cold front will link between these two areas of low pressure, extending from southwest WI to central OK and the TX Panhandle by early/mid afternoon. A prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico and surface high pressure over the Southeast will limit boundary-layer moisture. However, east/southeasterly low-level trajectories into TX become more south/southwest into OK and the along the surface trough into the Upper Great Lakes will allow for low 60s F dewpoints south (southern Plains) to 40s F dewpoints north (Great Lakes). ...Upper Great Lakes... Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused across WI/Lower MI and vicinity during the afternoon ahead of the surface front and upper shortwave trough. While boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, temperatures aloft are forecast to be quite cool, resulting in very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values generally less than 750 J/kg amid modest effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. This should support isolated strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening from southeast WI into northern IL/IN and parts of Lower MI. Elongated hodographs and mainly elevated instability coupled with the cold temperatures aloft may support hail to near 1 inch diameter. Steep low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary-layer also may support locally strong gusts. ...Northwest TX/Southwest OK vicinity... Large-scale ascent will be somewhat nebulous over the region today, but subtle northwest flow aloft amid veering low-level wind profiles will result in 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Strong heating in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and dryline, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates, will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg possible). This should support a few organized cells during the late afternoon/evening. Elongated forecast hodographs and modest vertical shear through 3 km suggests supercells capable of large hail (2+ inch diameter) are possible. Weak low-level flow and mixing to around 850 mb also indicates some potential for locally strong/severe gusts. While storm coverage is expected to remain isolated, given potential for significant hail (2+ inch diameter), a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 23, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. Additional strong storms producing hail to near 1 inch diameter and 60 mph gusts are possible from southeast Wisconsin and northern Illinois into Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast today. Meanwhile, upper ridging will be focused over the Rockies. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure is forecast from Quebec to the Upper MS Valley. A secondary surface low is forecast to develop over the TX Panhandle/South Plains. A cold front will link between these two areas of low pressure, extending from southwest WI to central OK and the TX Panhandle by early/mid afternoon. A prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico and surface high pressure over the Southeast will limit boundary-layer moisture. However, east/southeasterly low-level trajectories into TX become more south/southwest into OK and the along the surface trough into the Upper Great Lakes will allow for low 60s F dewpoints south (southern Plains) to 40s F dewpoints north (Great Lakes). ...Upper Great Lakes... Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused across WI/Lower MI and vicinity during the afternoon ahead of the surface front and upper shortwave trough. While boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, temperatures aloft are forecast to be quite cool, resulting in very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values generally less than 750 J/kg amid modest effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. This should support isolated strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening from southeast WI into northern IL/IN and parts of Lower MI. Elongated hodographs and mainly elevated instability coupled with the cold temperatures aloft may support hail to near 1 inch diameter. Steep low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary-layer also may support locally strong gusts. ...Northwest TX/Southwest OK vicinity... Large-scale ascent will be somewhat nebulous over the region today, but subtle northwest flow aloft amid veering low-level wind profiles will result in 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Strong heating in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and dryline, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates, will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg possible). This should support a few organized cells during the late afternoon/evening. Elongated forecast hodographs and modest vertical shear through 3 km suggests supercells capable of large hail (2+ inch diameter) are possible. Weak low-level flow and mixing to around 850 mb also indicates some potential for locally strong/severe gusts. While storm coverage is expected to remain isolated, given potential for significant hail (2+ inch diameter), a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 23, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. Additional strong storms producing hail to near 1 inch diameter and 60 mph gusts are possible from southeast Wisconsin and northern Illinois into Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast today. Meanwhile, upper ridging will be focused over the Rockies. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure is forecast from Quebec to the Upper MS Valley. A secondary surface low is forecast to develop over the TX Panhandle/South Plains. A cold front will link between these two areas of low pressure, extending from southwest WI to central OK and the TX Panhandle by early/mid afternoon. A prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico and surface high pressure over the Southeast will limit boundary-layer moisture. However, east/southeasterly low-level trajectories into TX become more south/southwest into OK and the along the surface trough into the Upper Great Lakes will allow for low 60s F dewpoints south (southern Plains) to 40s F dewpoints north (Great Lakes). ...Upper Great Lakes... Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused across WI/Lower MI and vicinity during the afternoon ahead of the surface front and upper shortwave trough. While boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, temperatures aloft are forecast to be quite cool, resulting in very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values generally less than 750 J/kg amid modest effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. This should support isolated strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening from southeast WI into northern IL/IN and parts of Lower MI. Elongated hodographs and mainly elevated instability coupled with the cold temperatures aloft may support hail to near 1 inch diameter. Steep low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary-layer also may support locally strong gusts. ...Northwest TX/Southwest OK vicinity... Large-scale ascent will be somewhat nebulous over the region today, but subtle northwest flow aloft amid veering low-level wind profiles will result in 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Strong heating in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and dryline, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates, will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg possible). This should support a few organized cells during the late afternoon/evening. Elongated forecast hodographs and modest vertical shear through 3 km suggests supercells capable of large hail (2+ inch diameter) are possible. Weak low-level flow and mixing to around 850 mb also indicates some potential for locally strong/severe gusts. While storm coverage is expected to remain isolated, given potential for significant hail (2+ inch diameter), a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 23, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. Additional strong storms producing hail to near 1 inch diameter and 60 mph gusts are possible from southeast Wisconsin and northern Illinois into Lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Upper Great Lakes to the Northeast today. Meanwhile, upper ridging will be focused over the Rockies. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure is forecast from Quebec to the Upper MS Valley. A secondary surface low is forecast to develop over the TX Panhandle/South Plains. A cold front will link between these two areas of low pressure, extending from southwest WI to central OK and the TX Panhandle by early/mid afternoon. A prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico and surface high pressure over the Southeast will limit boundary-layer moisture. However, east/southeasterly low-level trajectories into TX become more south/southwest into OK and the along the surface trough into the Upper Great Lakes will allow for low 60s F dewpoints south (southern Plains) to 40s F dewpoints north (Great Lakes). ...Upper Great Lakes... Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused across WI/Lower MI and vicinity during the afternoon ahead of the surface front and upper shortwave trough. While boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, temperatures aloft are forecast to be quite cool, resulting in very steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values generally less than 750 J/kg amid modest effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt. This should support isolated strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening from southeast WI into northern IL/IN and parts of Lower MI. Elongated hodographs and mainly elevated instability coupled with the cold temperatures aloft may support hail to near 1 inch diameter. Steep low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary-layer also may support locally strong gusts. ...Northwest TX/Southwest OK vicinity... Large-scale ascent will be somewhat nebulous over the region today, but subtle northwest flow aloft amid veering low-level wind profiles will result in 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Strong heating in the vicinity of a surface low/triple point and dryline, coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates, will aid in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg possible). This should support a few organized cells during the late afternoon/evening. Elongated forecast hodographs and modest vertical shear through 3 km suggests supercells capable of large hail (2+ inch diameter) are possible. Weak low-level flow and mixing to around 850 mb also indicates some potential for locally strong/severe gusts. While storm coverage is expected to remain isolated, given potential for significant hail (2+ inch diameter), a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 04/23/2024 Read more

Drought relief delivery to Yap State islands in the Federated States of Micronesia

1 year 3 months ago
The USCGC Oliver Henry delivered drought relief supplies, including water, food, and reverse osmosis systems, to four outer island communities: Satawal, Woleai, Fais, and Ulithi, in a 1,200 nautical mile round trip across Yap State in the Federated States of Micronesia. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Halawa Heights, Hawaii), April 17, 2024

Level 2-Significant Drought for Islands Region of Massachusetts

1 year 3 months ago
Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket were no longer in drought and became drought-free like the rest of the state after several months of above-average rainfall eased the dryness. CapeCod.com (Hyannis, Mass.), April 18, 2024 Three months of near-normal rainfall has led the Islands Region to be eased from Level 2-Significant Drought to Level 1-Mild Drought. The rest of the state remained in Level 0-Normal Conditions. Mass.gov (Boston), March 8, 2024 Massachusetts officials have designated a Level 2-Significant Drought for Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket after two months of scarce rainfall, low groundwater levels since June and atypical temperatures. People and businesses in these areas were to reduce overall water use and follow local guidance on water restrictions. CapeCod.com (Hyannis, Ma.), Dec 14, 2023

SPC Apr 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of the evening/overnight. ...South FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from the southeast FL coast. Convection has largely moved offshore or soon will, as the surface cold front continues to move southeast toward the FL Straits over the next few hours. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of the evening/overnight. ...South FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from the southeast FL coast. Convection has largely moved offshore or soon will, as the surface cold front continues to move southeast toward the FL Straits over the next few hours. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2024 Read more

SPC Apr 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected the remainder of the evening/overnight. ...South FL... Severe probabilities have been removed from the southeast FL coast. Convection has largely moved offshore or soon will, as the surface cold front continues to move southeast toward the FL Straits over the next few hours. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2024 Read more

Low lake levels in Central Texas

1 year 3 months ago
Rainfall varied throughout Central Texas, but some counties remained dry with lake levels at 30%. Other counties received heavy rains for up to four days. There were reports of up to 7 inches of rain in some areas, leading to steady runoff, creeks flowing over their banks and full stock tanks. Temperatures remained cool and kept winter grasses green and growing. Bermuda grass was emerging slowly due to cooler weather. Rangeland and pasture conditions were fair to good. Native and improved grasses were greening, but cool nights slowed growth. Producers were spraying weeds and fertilizing fields, and many producers got their first cut of hay. Wheat and oats were being grazed out. Corn planting was wrapping up, and the crop was off to a good start. Some early planted cotton had emerged. Cotton planted in the areas that received heavy rainfall may need to be replanted. Wheat continued to look good. Grain sorghum planting began with some fields remaining to be planted. Most cattle looked good on native pastures, and supplemental feeding slowed. Cattle prices were high, while sheep and goat prices held steady. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 16, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Wheat leaf rust, stripe rust in Texas

1 year 3 months ago
Years of drought, recent rainfall, combined with warm winter temperatures, have created good conditions for the widespread development of stripe rust in Texas. “Stripe rust is extensive this year, and we’ve been seeing it in our wheat trial plots and in producers’ fields for the past few weeks,” said an AgriLife Extension statewide small grains specialist in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Bryan-College Station. “Leaf rust came on a little later but has not been as widespread as the stripe rust.” AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 16, 2024

SPC Apr 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. Read more

SPC Apr 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States. Read more