Aggregator

WW 304 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 242125Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Kansas Southwest and south central Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a cold front and in the open warm sector across southwest and south central Missouri. The storm environment favors a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail to 2.5 inches in diameter and outflow gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Vichy MO to 30 miles south southwest of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0305 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 305 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 305 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-069-079-085-095-107-117-250040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONOKE MONROE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE MSC011-013-015-019-027-043-071-083-097-107-119-133-135-155-161- 250040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHOCTAW COAHOMA GRENADA LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MONTGOMERY PANOLA QUITMAN SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE WEBSTER YALOBUSHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 305 SEVERE TSTM AR MS 242320Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 620 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northwest Mississippi * Effective this Friday evening from 620 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some with supercell structure, may persist for a few more hours while moving southeastward across southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. Occasional large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats through late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Pine Bluff AR to 40 miles south southeast of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303...WW 304... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0939 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0939 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Illinois into southeast Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242146Z - 242345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to spread northeast into northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin through the evening hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but the overall threat should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters continue to move northeast from northwest IL/eastern IA towards northern IL/southern WI. GOES IR imagery has shown steadily cooling cloud top temperatures with this activity, suggesting some degree of intensification; however, MRMS vertically integrated ice (and other radar-based measures of convective intensity) show that most of the stronger updrafts/convective cores have been relatively short-lived. Some degree of air mass recovery has taken place across northern IL/southern WI with temperatures rebounding into the 70s, but cloud debris has limited overall destabilization, and RAP forecast soundings hint that low-level lapse rates are fairly marginal with some degree of lingering MLCIN. East/southeasterly low-level winds under 40 knot mid-level flow should continue to support transient storm organization with the deeper/stronger cells, but the marginal thermodynamic environment should modulate the overall severe threat. Sporadic damaging winds/hail, and perhaps a brief tornado, appear possible given the kinematic environment, but should be sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 40718878 41218955 41789006 42259016 42948995 43328953 43568904 43578871 43318774 42808759 42178749 41898732 41628731 41218744 40898773 40698811 40668840 40718878 Read more

WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ADM TO 35 WSW MKO TO 20 W GMJ TO 10 NW JLN. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-061-081-083-087-091-113-127-131-133-143- 250040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MILLER POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-041-061-063-069-077-079-085-089- 091-095-097-099-101-115-121-123-127-135-145-250040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES Read more

WW 303 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 242010Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Arkansas Eastern Oklahoma North and Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe storms are expected to develop across the region through late afternoon and early evening, including supercells capable of very large hail. A few storm clusters with an increased damaging wind risk may evolve by early evening within a very unstable environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Fayetteville AR to 50 miles southwest of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW COU TO 40 NE COU TO 5 NE UIN TO 30 WSW MLI. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-049-051-057-061-067-071-083- 095-107-109-115-117-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-149-157-163- 167-169-171-173-187-189-250040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FULTON GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON JERSEY KNOX LOGAN MCDONOUGH MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASON MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY WARREN WASHINGTON IAC057-250040- IA Read more

WW 302 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 241940Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 302 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Western and Southern Illinois Northern and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region in vicinity of multiple boundaries, with bouts of large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Kirksville MO to 40 miles south southeast of Decatur IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

698
ABPZ20 KNHC 242314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Kansas’ winter wheat remained the worst rated in the country for the sixth straight week. The condition of the wheat improved slightly from last week. The winter wheat crop in northwest Kansas did not receive moisture until December. The state got some snow at the start of winter, but the end of the season into early spring was again dry, which stymied the wheat. May brought some moisture for the wheat, but it was too late for some of the wheat. Some farmers were already abandoning their wheat as rainfall has been spotty. There has also been some freeze damage. SF | Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), May 21, 2024

MD 0936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...central and southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242042Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible over central and southwest MO through the early to mid evening. Only isolated storm coverage is expected, lending uncertainty to the need for a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of storms developing within a pre-frontal confluence zone over central MO and agitated cumulus along the front/dryline over western MO and into far northeast OK. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 deg F. Modifying the 18z Springfield, MO raob with 20z surface conditions, indicates 4700 J/kg SBCAPE or MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Per the 18z raob, moderate westerly flow gradually strengthening with height to 50 kt around 250 mb, will support storm organization. Any robust updraft will potentially be capable of acquiring supercell characteristics. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk given the isolated/cellular character of the storm type. Localized severe gusts could accompany any larger thunderstorm core. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37429450 38329335 38429280 38209175 37989116 37629113 37299146 36579263 36559351 36589434 36889448 37429450 Read more

MD 0937 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302... Valid 242057Z - 242230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms should remain capable of damaging gusts and hail this afternoon. Additional clustering may favor the more southeastern parts of the watch with time, but the severe risk continues over much of the area. DISCUSSION...As of 2050 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing from eastern MO into parts of central IL. Concentrated along a remnant outflow boundary from prior convection, storm evolution so far has been messy with multiple storm interactions. Though a few supercellular structures have recently emerged to the southwest. The upscale growth trend is expected to continue as the environment remains unstable and moderately sheared. Additional storms to the southwest are expected to increase in coverage with time and should merge with the already ongoing clusters. Eventually, one or more of these clusters may evolve into a more organized bow/ MCS as it tracks along the remnant outflow across far eastern MO and southwest IL. Given the tendency for upscale growth/clustering and moderate buoyancy/shear, damaging winds appear likely. Isolated hail will also be possible with the more robust cores. ..Lyons.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... LAT...LON 38339234 39299170 40379041 40459005 40408930 40198877 39898826 39818821 39608803 39338796 38988795 38688800 38298818 37948917 38039076 38209171 38229223 38339234 Read more

MD 0938 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0938 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into northern Mississippi and Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242058Z - 242230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continue along an outflow boundary across portions of the Southeast. Damaging gusts and hail still appear to be the main threats. Trends continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance pending an increase in thunderstorm coverage. DISCUSSION...Discrete transient supercell structures continued to progress along and north of an outflow boundary left behind by an MCS from earlier this morning. Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s F south of the boundary, with MLCAPE increasing to over 3000 J/kg. Amid this environment, there has been a recent uptick in the intensity of the storms, with severe hail and damaging gusts recently reported in Pontotoc County, MS. While hail and wind gusts of similar caliber may occur over the next few hours, overall deep-layer ascent remains modest, putting overall storm coverage and the need of a WW issuance into question. Still, given the uptick in storm intensity, convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance should storms become more abundant. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34909281 35249095 34948972 33968689 33358639 32908677 33008797 33348984 33829126 34209224 34909281 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more