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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain posssible this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...MO...IA...IL...IN... Several areas of thunderstorms are ongoing, which have produced stabilizing outflows. However, a plume of very strong instability remains over MO, and southwest winds ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into western MO will maintain a feed of unstable air, with some recovery expected, even into the overnight. As such, have left probabilities largely untouched from previous outlook. See mesoscale discussion 932 for more details. ...Eastern OK into northeast TX and AR... A very unstable air mass has developed beneath modest midlevel westerlies. Storms will continue to increase in coverage along the weak cold front, with large hail likely. See mesoscale discussion 933 for more details. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain posssible this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...MO...IA...IL...IN... Several areas of thunderstorms are ongoing, which have produced stabilizing outflows. However, a plume of very strong instability remains over MO, and southwest winds ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into western MO will maintain a feed of unstable air, with some recovery expected, even into the overnight. As such, have left probabilities largely untouched from previous outlook. See mesoscale discussion 932 for more details. ...Eastern OK into northeast TX and AR... A very unstable air mass has developed beneath modest midlevel westerlies. Storms will continue to increase in coverage along the weak cold front, with large hail likely. See mesoscale discussion 933 for more details. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain posssible this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...MO...IA...IL...IN... Several areas of thunderstorms are ongoing, which have produced stabilizing outflows. However, a plume of very strong instability remains over MO, and southwest winds ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into western MO will maintain a feed of unstable air, with some recovery expected, even into the overnight. As such, have left probabilities largely untouched from previous outlook. See mesoscale discussion 932 for more details. ...Eastern OK into northeast TX and AR... A very unstable air mass has developed beneath modest midlevel westerlies. Storms will continue to increase in coverage along the weak cold front, with large hail likely. See mesoscale discussion 933 for more details. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain posssible this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...MO...IA...IL...IN... Several areas of thunderstorms are ongoing, which have produced stabilizing outflows. However, a plume of very strong instability remains over MO, and southwest winds ahead of the cold front from eastern IA into western MO will maintain a feed of unstable air, with some recovery expected, even into the overnight. As such, have left probabilities largely untouched from previous outlook. See mesoscale discussion 932 for more details. ...Eastern OK into northeast TX and AR... A very unstable air mass has developed beneath modest midlevel westerlies. Storms will continue to increase in coverage along the weak cold front, with large hail likely. See mesoscale discussion 933 for more details. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. Read more

MD 0933 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241848Z - 242015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage through the afternoon. Very large hail (some stones possibly reaching 4 inches in diameter) and severe gusts are the main threats, though a couple of tornadoes could also occur. A WW issuance will be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Cumulus are gradually deepening ahead of a cold front sagging southward across central OK, and a dryline over central TX. Ahead of these boundaries, surface temperatures are warming well into the 80s F amid mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading this very moist, deep boundary layer, contributing to 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE already in place over much of eastern OK into northeastern and central TX. MLCAPE may peak to 5000 J/kg in spots, and when considering elongated hodographs (contributing to 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear), splitting supercells are expected. These supercells may become quite intense, fostering prolonged periods of hail suspension, perhaps allowing some stones to grow up to 4 inches in diameter. Severe gusts may also occur with the stronger storm cores. Limited directional and speed shear in the lowest few km suggests that the overall tornado threat may be limited. However, robust right-moving supercells could produce tornadoes given the extreme instability, especially if any storms manage to traverse meso-gamma scale boundaries. A WW issuance will be needed in the next couple of hours to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31429623 31149669 30889732 30809787 30899825 31019842 31319869 33289772 35739623 36459534 36309488 35439454 34049483 32219580 31429623 Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0302 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0931 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0931 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Georgia into central and southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241733Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail or wind could accompany the stronger storms. The severe threat is expected to be isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across portions of central GA, where convective temperatures have been reached. These storms should continue eastward amid a moist, buoyant airmass, with upper 60s F surface dewpoints and 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Tropospheric wind fields are not as strong as points farther west though, with some speed shear contributing to mid-level hodograph elongation. Through the afternoon, pulse-cellular and multicell storms should develop, with isolated large hail and damaging gusts possible with the stronger storms. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34308437 34358383 34198270 33828086 33357982 32837973 32398036 31928095 31938181 32218289 32528344 33148406 34308437 Read more

MD 0929 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0929 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...northern and central Missouri...west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241657Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered storm development is forecast this afternoon coincident with an increasing risk for severe weather. Large to very large hail is possible (1-2.5 inches in diameter), strong/locally damaging to severe gusts (55-70 mph), and possibly a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field across far eastern KS and northwest/western MO ahead of a cold front gradually pushing east across the lower MO Valley. A morning severe MCS --currently approaching Lake Michigan-- has resulted in an outflow boundary becoming draped from central IL westward into northeast MO and arcing northwestward into far south-central IA. South-southwesterly low-level flow will advect higher theta-e as the airmass destabilizes gradually from southwest to east-northeast across northeast MO and west-central IL. Forecast soundings for early this afternoon show a very unstable airmass (3500 J/kg MLCAPE) across northern/central MO south of the outflow boundary. Effective shear around 30 kt will support organized storms, including supercells and severe multicells (especially once additional storms develop and congeal their outflows). The hail risk will be greatest with any supercell that develops given 8.0 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and large buoyancy. If the outflow boundary and air immediately on the cool side can modify appreciably over the next few hours, it is possible a tornado threat develops with storms that can favorably interact with the zone of augmented low-level shear. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 40049403 40439299 40569103 40189029 39609006 39029019 38509115 38559270 38749395 38979432 39369437 40049403 Read more

MD 0930 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0930 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern and central Mississippi...northern and central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241717Z - 241845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated to potentially scattered instances of severe wind or hail may occur with the stronger storms across portions of the Southeast. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms have recently developed along the leading edge of outflow and ahead of an MCV from a dissipating MCS across northern parts of MS and AL. Immediately ahead of the outflow boundary, strong diurnal heating is supporting boundary-layer deepening, with agitated CU already developing, and over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE evident via 17Z mesoanalysis. Over 50 kts of westerly 500 mb flow is contributing to strong unidirectional speed shear and modestly curved/elongated hodographs. Multicells should be the predominant mode of convection, though a transient supercell or two cannot be ruled out. Severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. Coverage of severe storms is still somewhat uncertain, but convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34398602 33608543 32848551 32538609 32588760 33068931 33569001 33919028 34279052 34339043 34398602 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to violent tornadoes, extreme hail, and corridors of widespread wind damage are forecast over parts of the central and southern Plains from late Saturday afternoon into the night. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the Four Corners states into the central Plains on Saturday, with a deepening surface low into western KS by 00Z. A warm front will extend from northwest TX into AR Saturday morning, and will rapidly return north across OK, southern KS, and southwest MO through 00Z. South of the warm front, a very moist and unstable air mass will develop, with mid 70s F dewpoints from TX into OK. The deeper southerly flow through 850 mb will rapidly increase late in the day, accelerating theta-e advection into the central Plains. A dryline will remain in place for much of the period from southwest KS into western OK/northwest TX. The end result will be a rare combination of instability and shear across the Moderate Risk area, with potential for particularly strong tornadoes, wind, and extreme hail. ...Central and Southern Plains... Much of the day will be void of storms as the warm sector develops. Rapid changes in the environment are expected during the late afternoon and evening, as the approaching upper wave interacts with the uncapped air mass. Storms are likely to form first across western NE into western KS near the developing cold front and surface low, an beneath the strongest cooling aloft. Strengthening southwest flow behind the dryline and deep mixed layers should easily support development after 21Z in this area. Very large hail is likely initially, with increasing tornado threat with long-lived supercells as they evolve eastward through the evening. Long-tracked and violent tornadoes will be possible as the low-level jet increases during the evening, while maintaining a very moist and unstable boundary layer. Extreme hail over 4.00 inches is expected with such strong instability and impressive mid to upper level wind speeds. With time, storms are expected to merge into a severe MCS, possibly with corridors of extreme wind damage, as it proceeds into eastern KS and far western MO late. Farther south along the dryline and within the open warm sector across OK and into TX, overall large-scale lift will be less than points north. However, at least isolated, very large supercells capable of destructive tornadoes and extreme hail will be possible with storms that form late in the day and evening and move across western and central OK and pars of northern TX. Aside from the steeper lapse rate environment near the dryline, mesoscale conditions will need to be closely monitored for low-level confluence lines within the deepening moist sector east of the dryline. The cap will not be particularly strong or high off the ground (low LFC). Given mid 70s F dewpoints and expected late initiation, this may be a plausible scenario from northwest TX into central OK. Only reduced confidence in total storm coverage is precluding a High Risk at this time. Farther south, cells should be more isolated along the dryline into central TX, however, the environment will remain quite favorable for late day significant hail, and perhaps a tornado. ..Jewell.. 05/24/2024 Read more