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MD 0926 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299...300... FOR IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0926 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...Iowa/northern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299...300... Valid 241017Z - 241215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299, 300 continues. SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk -- including damaging winds, hail, and a tornado or two -- continues across WW 300. Greatest risk is evident across central and southern Iowa -- near and south of the surface warm front. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the well-established/organized convective line moving eastward across Iowa, and now merging (in central IA) with cellular convection which had developed east of the main line. A particularly interesting interaction has recently occurred south/southeast of Des Moines, where rapid upscale supercellular evolution was observed within a bowing segment of the line, subsequent to merger of the bow with one of these more isolated convective elements. Radar data from KDMX appeared to confirm a brief tornado. Elsewhere, damaging winds, and occasional/brief tornadic spin-ups remain possible. Risk appears to wane with northward extent toward the Minnesota border, especially into northeastern Iowa where a much cooler/more stable airmass exists to the northeast of the central/southeastern Iowa warm front. South of that front however, severe weather remains likely as convection continues advancing eastward over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 39709477 40339493 41149357 42079404 43019429 42999326 42899216 42459093 41009093 40039148 39709477 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241133
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

WW 0300 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 300 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CDJ TO 20 NW OTM TO 35 WSW CID TO 15 NNW ALO TO 35 ESE MCW. ..GOSS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 300 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-011-013-017-019-031-051-055-057-061-087-095-101-103-105- 107-111-113-115-123-135-139-177-179-183-185-241240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN CEDAR DAVIS DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA MAHASKA MONROE MUSCATINE VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON WAYNE MOC001-045-079-129-171-197-199-211-241240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK GRUNDY MERCER PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0300 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 300 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CDJ TO 20 NW OTM TO 35 WSW CID TO 15 NNW ALO TO 35 ESE MCW. ..GOSS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 300 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-011-013-017-019-031-051-055-057-061-087-095-101-103-105- 107-111-113-115-123-135-139-177-179-183-185-241240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN CEDAR DAVIS DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA MAHASKA MONROE MUSCATINE VAN BUREN WAPELLO WASHINGTON WAYNE MOC001-045-079-129-171-197-199-211-241240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CLARK GRUNDY MERCER PUTNAM SCHUYLER SCOTLAND SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0301 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0301 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0925 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299...300... FOR IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0925 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...Iowa/northern Missouri and vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299...300... Valid 240854Z - 241100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299, 300 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds and a couple of brief tornadoes continues across western and into central Iowa, and vicinity. DISCUSSION...A well-organized line of storms with embedded LEWPs and occasional misocyclones continues moving eastward at around 40 kt -- though at near 50 kt within the surging portion of the line crossing west-central Iowa at this time. Several gusts to near/in excess of severe levels have been received over the past hour or so, and expect risk to continue eastward as the line moves through an amply unstable environment into central parts of Iowa. Separately, more isolated/cellular storms continue to increase in coverage across Iowa ahead of the main convective line, in a zone of warm advection. This convection is elevated atop a rather deep (1.5km) but weakly stable surface-based layer, suggesting that primary severe potential should remain large hail with this activity, until the main line of storms and associated cold pool arrives from the west. One exception may be with a cluster of cells moving quickly northeastward across Keokuk and Jefferson Counties in southeastern Iowa, which seems to be evolving into a more organized/bowing cluster (suggesting potential for strong gusts that may reach the surface). ..Goss.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40099565 40379582 41299502 42049504 42769557 43079484 42779335 42079209 40839163 40439257 40019554 40099565 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that large-scale flow will become more amplified across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America late this weekend into at least the middle of next week. This is forecast to include building mid-level ridging inland of the Pacific coast, then across and east of the northern Rockies by Wednesday, in advance of inland progressing large-scale mid-level troughing. Downstream of this regime, there may be some further consolidation of mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, before one embedded perturbation possibly contributes to cyclogenesis and an evolving cut-off low offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by late next week. As a significant initial cyclone migrates northeast of the Upper Great Lakes region on Memorial Day, there is some potential for moistening, destabilization and increasing shear within its warm sector to support at least some risk for severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. However, the stabilizing influence of potentially extensive convection and convective outflow upstream during preceding days is a possible complicating factor, so less than 15 percent probabilities will be maintained for now due to low predictability. Thereafter, into the middle to latter portion of next week, strong potential instability will become confined to the Gulf Coast initially, then mainly across the plains immediately to the east of the Rockies. While the risk for severe weather may not be negligible, it currently appears that this may remain isolated to widely scattered in nature. Read more