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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from north Texas/eastern Oklahoma and the Mid-South into the Midwest including parts of Missouri and Illinois. ...Midwest including parts of IL/MO/southern WI... A previously intense/well-organized bow echo has weakened into northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin through late morning, with the gust/outflow boundary extending from the Chicagoland southwestward into west-central Illinois near/south of the IA/MO/IL border vicinity. The surface cold pool has considerably impacted the post-MCS environment, with likely ramifications for the magnitude and likelihood of the severe risk into far northern Illinois/Wisconsin, although some measure of air mass recovery will occur and severe storms will be possible even without a pristine boundary layer. The region is on the north-northeast periphery of a substantial elevated mixed layer (EML) sampled by 12z observed soundings including Topeka KS and Lincoln IL. The outflow boundary where it intercepts the approaching cold front, in general vicinity of the IA/MO/IL border, will likely be a favored zone for renewed severe storm development later this afternoon. Some initial supercell development can be expected before subsequent upscale growth by evening, with all severe hazards plausible in this corridor. Farther north, across far eastern Iowa/northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin, later-day severe potential is a bit more uncertain owing to this morning's MCS. However, at least isolated severe storms capable of severe hail/damaging winds may occur near the eastward-advancing cold front pending the degree of air mass recovery/destabilization. ...Southern Plains including North TX/Eastern OK to Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms, including locally intense supercells, are expected to develop into mid/late afternoon mainly near the southwest/northeast-oriented front, with more isolated near-dryline development possible into central Texas. After initial supercells, updraft growth is likely given the strong surface heating, abundant moisture (70s F dewpoints common), steep deep-layer lapse rates and intense buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Low-level flow and hodograph size will be modest. However, ambient mid/upper winds will be strong enough to support supercells (left- and right-moving), with effective-shear values near 50 kt. Large to very large hail should be common in the first few hours after initiation, and locally severe gusts are expected as well. In the wake of predawn MCS, airmass recovery is expected into southeastern and east-central Oklahoma in the zone of warm/moist advection ahead of the front. A relatively dense and enhanced concentration of hail potential from eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas is expected, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter likely, and some hail perhaps exceeding 3 inches. Otherwise, deep, precip-loaded downdrafts will provide most of the wind potential early, with some upscale clustering and cold-pool aggregation possible to maintain damaging-wind potential into late evening, before activity generally weakens. ...Southeast States... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon through early evening from the southern Appalachians vicinity/north Georgia to the coastal Carolinas. Steepening low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will support strong updrafts/downdrafts, with a modestly enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies contributing to multicell sustenance. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/24/2024 Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRL TO 35 NNW BMI TO 30 N MMO TO 15 E JVL. ..SMITH..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-067-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-109-111-113-143-179-197-203-241700- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN PEORIA TAZEWELL WILL WOODFORD WIC059-079-089-101-127-131-133-241700- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRL TO 35 NNW BMI TO 30 N MMO TO 15 E JVL. ..SMITH..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-067-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-109-111-113-143-179-197-203-241700- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN PEORIA TAZEWELL WILL WOODFORD WIC059-079-089-101-127-131-133-241700- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRL TO 35 NNW BMI TO 30 N MMO TO 15 E JVL. ..SMITH..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-067-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-109-111-113-143-179-197-203-241700- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN PEORIA TAZEWELL WILL WOODFORD WIC059-079-089-101-127-131-133-241700- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRL TO 35 NNW BMI TO 30 N MMO TO 15 E JVL. ..SMITH..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-067-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-109-111-113-143-179-197-203-241700- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN PEORIA TAZEWELL WILL WOODFORD WIC059-079-089-101-127-131-133-241700- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRL TO 35 NNW BMI TO 30 N MMO TO 15 E JVL. ..SMITH..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-031-037-043-053-057-063-067-075-089-091-093-095-097-099- 105-109-111-113-143-179-197-203-241700- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN PEORIA TAZEWELL WILL WOODFORD WIC059-079-089-101-127-131-133-241700- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA Read more

WW 301 SEVERE TSTM IA IL WI LM 241105Z - 241800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern and northeastern Iowa Northern Illinois Southwestern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 605 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized squall line, preceded by isolated strong-severe thunderstorms, should continue to move across Iowa and the Mississippi River into adjoining parts of Illinois and southwestern Wisconsin through midday. Damaging to severe gusts should continue, along with a threat for a brief/embedded tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Moline IL to 55 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 300... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Edwards Read more

MD 0927 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... FOR FAR SOUTHERN WI...NORTHERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...far southern WI...northern IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301... Valid 241344Z - 241545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301 continues. SUMMARY...A severe bow echo will continue moving east at 40 mph across far southern WI and northern IL through 1030 am CDT. Severe gusts 60-75 mph are likely with the more intense bowing segments of the squall line and a couple of mesovortex tornadoes are possible. DISCUSSION...A long-lived bow echo is currently moving across the MS River this morning. The airmass downstream of the squall line continues to destabilize despite an anvil-level cloud shield spreading east. Surface analysis indicates a warm front is advancing northward from north-central IN through far northeast IL and into southern WI. South of the boundary, surface dewpoints are rising into the lower to mid 60s deg F and temperatures are in the upper 60s. Further heating will likely result in temperatures rising into the mid-upper 60s over far southern WI and into the low-mid 70s across northern IL prior to squall line passage. Water-vapor imagery shows a progressive negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough/mid-level low over the Upper Midwest. The very mature character of the Rear Inflow Jet sampled via the Des Moines and Davenport WSR-88Ds VADs suggest the strongly dynamic nature of the squall line and destabilizing boundary layer ahead of it, will combine to support a likely continuation of severe-gust risk into the greater Chicago metro during the 1030am to 1200pm timeframe. Severe gusts primarily in the 60-75 mph are likely in the next 1-2 hours as this activity moves east across northern IL/far southern WI. A couple of mesovortices capable of severe gusts and/or brief tornadoes are possible. ..Smith.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 42689028 42848860 42218837 41538832 41158851 41158935 41189010 41659008 41989014 42099036 42359024 42689028 Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE BRL TO 45 N PIA TO 25 W JVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 ..SMITH..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-053-057-063-067-075-089-091-093-097-099- 103-105-109-111-113-123-141-143-155-175-177-179-197-201-203- 241540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN MARSHALL OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WILL WINNEBAGO WOODFORD WIC045-059-101-105-127-241540- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0301 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE BRL TO 45 N PIA TO 25 W JVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927 ..SMITH..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 301 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-053-057-063-067-075-089-091-093-097-099- 103-105-109-111-113-123-141-143-155-175-177-179-197-201-203- 241540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MCLEAN MARSHALL OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WILL WINNEBAGO WOODFORD WIC045-059-101-105-127-241540- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more