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Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more