Aggregator

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW AUO TO 40 SSW CSG TO 45 S CSG TO 30 NNW ABY TO 40 N ABY TO 20 SW MCN TO 25 ENE MCN. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-067-069-109-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE FLC059-063-131-133-252040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC003-007-017-019-023-027-037-061-069-071-075-081-087-091-093- 095-099-107-131-153-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-185-193-201-205- 209-225-235-239-243-253-261-271-273-275-277-279-283-287-289-303- 309-315-319-321-252040- Read more

WW 0307 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0307 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0307 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0307 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 306 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/25/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-031-045-061-067-069-109-113-251940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON PIKE RUSSELL FLC059-063-131-133-251940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC003-007-017-019-021-023-027-037-053-061-069-071-075-079-081- 087-091-093-095-099-107-131-153-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-185- 193-197-201-205-209-215-225-235-239-243-249-253-259-261-269-271- 273-275-277-279-283-287-289-303-307-309-315-319-321-251940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0948 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0948 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and far southwest New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251539Z - 251815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Damaging gusts and some hail may accompany the strongest storms. The severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and intensity ahead of a surface trough over eastern OH, with agitated CU becoming apparent ahead of the storms. Strong diurnal heating and modest warm-air/moisture advection amid modest lapse rates is boosting MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg via tall, thin vertical profiles (per latest RAP forecast soundings). These forecast soundings also depict small low-level hodographs, but with mid-level elongation. As such, stronger multicell clusters and line segments that can become established may contain hail (with a couple bouts of severe hail possible). Damaging gusts may also occur with the stronger storm cores. The severe threat should remain isolated though, so a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 40498164 41748061 42667893 42657854 42137822 41297814 40597828 40077885 39797939 39718011 39748061 39918109 40498164 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Western and central Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more