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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across southern CA, while a related belt of moderate/strong southerly flow aloft overspreads western AZ into southern NV and UT. This will promote a tightening surface pressure gradient and 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds across these areas. These winds, coupled with a deep/dry boundary layer (single-digit RH) and receptive fuels, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of AZ into UT -- aided by ascent preceding the aforementioned midlevel trough. If afternoon thunderstorms can develop, these storms would be high-based in an environment characterized by a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- and isolated lightning-induced ignitions would be possible. However, confidence in afternoon storm development is low owing to very marginal instability, precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. Confidence in thunderstorm development is higher during the overnight period, when a mix of wet/dry storms are expected. However, increasing boundary-layer RH and midlevel moisture may temper the overall threat of ignitions. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast Montana into western/central North Dakota. ...Mid-MO Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Northeast MT/North Dakota... An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization. Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this week a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some
slow development is possible this weekend and early next week while
the system meanders near the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1245 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407... Valid 130211Z - 130415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail persists over a small area of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa in the near term. Storms will likely shrink in size during the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A pair of large supercells with history of very large hail remain over western IA into far eastern NE near the Omaha area. The 00Z sounding from OAX shows a rather deep moist layer up to nearly 700 mb, not far from the LFC, with favorable deep-layer shear. Given the loss of heating, the cooling boundary layer will gain convective inhibition relatively quickly, perhaps in the next hour, which should result in a weakening trend with these cells. Until then, hail will remain likely through about 03-04Z, with locally gusty winds as well prior to ..Jewell.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX... LAT...LON 41439612 41529605 41629584 41619552 41529532 41039511 40829514 40729539 40749566 40889593 41119610 41439612 Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE OLU TO 45 NNW LWD. ..JEWELL..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC129-137-130440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MILLS MONTGOMERY NEC153-155-130440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SARPY SAUNDERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 407 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 130025Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday evening from 725 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A couple of severe supercells are possible over the Watch area this evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of very large to giant hail (2 to 3.5 inches in diameter), localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Denison IA to 25 miles south of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405...WW 406... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 33020. ...Smith Read more