Aggregator

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0406 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 406 TORNADO MN WI 122355Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Minnesota Northwest Wisconsin * Effective this Wednesday evening from 655 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Several supercells will continue east-southeast and traverse a moist/unstable airmass in an environment with increasing low-level shear. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Saint Cloud MN to 100 miles east northeast of Saint Cloud MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this week a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some
slow development is possible this weekend and early next week while
the system meanders near the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 ..WEINMAN..06/12/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-009-011-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-051-057- 059-061-065-069-071-075-077-087-089-095-097-107-111-113-115-119- 121-125-135-137-141-145-149-153-155-159-167-122340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CHISAGO CLAY CLEARWATER COOK CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC KITTSON KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL MILLE LACS MORRISON NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON PINE POLK POPE RED LAKE ROSEAU ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC017-035-067-077-097-099-122340- Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 ..WEINMAN..06/12/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-005-007-009-011-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-051-057- 059-061-065-069-071-075-077-087-089-095-097-107-111-113-115-119- 121-125-135-137-141-145-149-153-155-159-167-122340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE CARLTON CASS CHISAGO CLAY CLEARWATER COOK CROW WING DOUGLAS GRANT HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC KITTSON KOOCHICHING LAKE LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL MILLE LACS MORRISON NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON PINE POLK POPE RED LAKE ROSEAU ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE STEARNS STEVENS TODD TRAVERSE WADENA WILKIN NDC017-035-067-077-097-099-122340- Read more

WW 405 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD WI LS 122030Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northern and central Minnesota eastern North Dakota far northeastern South Dakota northwestern Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 4:30 PM or so across the eastern North Dakota/northwestern Minnesota area, with storms quickly becoming severe. Very large/destructive hail, and strong/damaging wind gusts are expected, with a tornado or two also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Fargo ND to 35 miles east of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Goss Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Summary... Elevated to critical meteorological fire spread conditions, in conjunction with increasingly receptive fuels, will slowly become more widespread late this week through early next week across portions of the Pacific Northwest, southward through the Great Basin and Southwest. ...Synopsis... A small area of 70 percent Critical probabilities remains in the forecast for D3/Friday near the NM/AZ border. However, trends over the past couple of days are starting to suggest slightly weaker flow in the mid-levels within the base of a shortwave trough, and subsequently weaker westerly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence remains just high enough to keep higher probabilities in the forecast for now, but these could be reduced if similar trends are present in near future forecasts. Further north across far western NV and east of the Cascade Mountains, breezy, dry westerlies will accompany a mid to upper large-scale trough entering the Pacific Northwest, and a mid-level shortwave trough in its base near the southern Great Basin. While surface wind speeds will weaken a bit across much of the Great Basin D4/Saturday, persistent, and even stronger, westerly downslope winds will continue across the Cascades. Fuels east of the range by this time are expected to become even more receptive to fire spread and ignition. Therefore, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been included there. These probabilities could increase depending on later fuel assessments. The upper trough is expected to dig southeastward late this weekend through D6/Monday into the Intermountain West and Great Basin. Widespread increasing mid to upper flow within the base of this trough, and tightening surface pressure gradients, will yield an increasing threat of at least 40 percent critical probabilities spreading across more of the Southwest by D6/Monday behind a dryline. This pattern may continue into D7/Tuesday-D8/Wednesday, and additional low probabilities may eventually be introduced across the Southwest if forecast confidence increases. ..Barnes.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more