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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...WESTERN/NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across southern Iowa into northern portions of Missouri and Illinois during the late afternoon to early evening. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains to the central Great Lakes... An active severe-weather episode still appears possible this afternoon and evening, centered across parts of the Midwest. Very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger), severe wind gusts in excess of 75 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded slightly southward based on the latest guidance. A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum will move across parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. A surface low will deepen as it moves across parts of Ontario and Quebec, with a trailing cold front expected to move across parts of the central Great Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. A secondary low may develop along the front across parts of central KS during the afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates, strong heating, and relatively rich low-level moisture will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near and south of the front this afternoon into the evening. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly flow will impinge upon the warm sector from northern MO/southern IA into the Great Lakes, supporting sufficient effective shear for storm organization, including the potential for supercells. Deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker with southwestward extent across the central Great Plains, but still modestly supportive of a few stronger storms. There will be some potential for morning convection to intensify as it moves eastward across parts of WI/MI through the day, with an attendant threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Farther southwest along the front, supercell development will be possible by mid/late afternoon from southern/eastern IA into northern MO and northern IL, with an initial threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. While low-level flow/shear will not be particularly strong, a couple of tornadoes will also be possible, given the potential for a few intense supercells within a strongly unstable environment. Upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible by early evening, with increasing potential for severe gusts in excess of 75 mph. The severe threat should gradually wane after dusk, due to increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent. ...CO Front Range into parts of the central/southern High Plains... Isolated strong to severe storm development is possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the CO Front Range into northeast CO, primarily within a post-frontal regime. Any such development could pose a threat of localized hail and severe gusts. Farther south, isolated to scattered high-based storm development will be possible within a hot and well-mixed environment from western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX/OK Panhandle. Severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms within this regime, along with some potential for isolated hail. ..Dean/Weinman.. 06/13/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form late this week a couple of
hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some
slow development is possible this weekend and early next week while
the system meanders near the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1245 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407... Valid 130211Z - 130415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail persists over a small area of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa in the near term. Storms will likely shrink in size during the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A pair of large supercells with history of very large hail remain over western IA into far eastern NE near the Omaha area. The 00Z sounding from OAX shows a rather deep moist layer up to nearly 700 mb, not far from the LFC, with favorable deep-layer shear. Given the loss of heating, the cooling boundary layer will gain convective inhibition relatively quickly, perhaps in the next hour, which should result in a weakening trend with these cells. Until then, hail will remain likely through about 03-04Z, with locally gusty winds as well prior to ..Jewell.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX... LAT...LON 41439612 41529605 41629584 41619552 41529532 41039511 40829514 40729539 40749566 40889593 41119610 41439612 Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE OLU TO 45 NNW LWD. ..JEWELL..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC129-137-130440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MILLS MONTGOMERY NEC153-155-130440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SARPY SAUNDERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 407 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 130025Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday evening from 725 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A couple of severe supercells are possible over the Watch area this evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of very large to giant hail (2 to 3.5 inches in diameter), localized severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Denison IA to 25 miles south of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405...WW 406... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 33020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1244 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 406... FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east-central Minnesota into far northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 406... Valid 130123Z - 130230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, locally damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will continue across parts of east-central Minnesota into far northwestern Wisconsin for the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDLH indicates an east/west-oriented band of semi-discrete supercells across Aitkin and Pine Counties in east-central MN -- generally focused along an antecedent outflow boundary. Lower/middle 60s dewpoints immediately south of the boundary should continue to provide moderately unstable inflow for these storms, while around 200 m2/s2 0-500m SRH favors persistent low/midlevel mesocyclones. Given the favorable environment and semi-discrete updrafts, these storms will have the best chance of producing a tornado or two and isolated large hail in the near-term. Farther south (just north of the Minneapolis metro area), locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail could accompany a loosely organized band of storms, and a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out owing to the aforementioned favorable low-level SRH. However, these storms are impinging on increased MLCINH owing to cooler surface temperatures and slightly lower dewpoints compared to areas north. ..Weinman.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 46479373 46569319 46529202 46249159 45799159 45509197 45349238 45289303 45339402 45499437 45679436 45939406 46159395 46479373 Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OLU TO 15 W TQE TO 15 ENE TQE TO 40 E DNS. ..JEWELL..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-029-085-129-137-155-165-130340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CASS HARRISON MILLS MONTGOMERY POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY NEC021-053-055-153-155-177-130340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT DODGE DOUGLAS SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0407 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE OLU TO 15 W TQE TO 15 ENE TQE TO 40 E DNS. ..JEWELL..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 407 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-029-085-129-137-155-165-130340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CASS HARRISON MILLS MONTGOMERY POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY NEC021-053-055-153-155-177-130340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT DODGE DOUGLAS SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1242 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122317Z - 130145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated cells may produce locally damaging gusts and hail. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has led to an uncapped air mass near a surface trough extending from eastern NE into northwest KS. Visible imagery and radar indicate storms beginning to form near SUX, with additional towering Cu into NE along the boundary. Convergence near this boundary and the uncapped air mass where mid 90s F have been achieved may support isolated severe storms over the next 1-2 hours. This threat is likely to be short lived as capping eventually returns, however, moderate mid to high level northwesterlies will favor southeastward-moving cells capable of hail, and strong gusts cannot be ruled out given the hot and well-mixed boundary layer. ..Jewell/Smith.. 06/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40839691 41369688 41839685 42089671 42349646 42359624 41969573 41449554 40989559 40649570 40429604 40369670 40539680 40839691 Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S STC TO 20 NNW STC TO 25 WNW DLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-025-059-065-095-115-141-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE WIC013-095-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S STC TO 20 NNW STC TO 25 WNW DLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-025-059-065-095-115-141-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE WIC013-095-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0406 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S STC TO 20 NNW STC TO 25 WNW DLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 406 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-025-059-065-095-115-141-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CHISAGO ISANTI KANABEC MILLE LACS PINE SHERBURNE WIC013-095-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURNETT POLK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 406 TORNADO MN WI 122355Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Minnesota Northwest Wisconsin * Effective this Wednesday evening from 655 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Several supercells will continue east-southeast and traverse a moist/unstable airmass in an environment with increasing low-level shear. Large to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Saint Cloud MN to 100 miles east northeast of Saint Cloud MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 405... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO 45 NW ELO TO 20 SW GNA TO 20 SE AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-069-077-089-113-135-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON ROSEAU NDC067-099-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PEMBINA WALSH WIC003-005-007-031-129-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO 45 NW ELO TO 20 SW GNA TO 20 SE AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-069-077-089-113-135-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON ROSEAU NDC067-099-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PEMBINA WALSH WIC003-005-007-031-129-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD Read more

WW 0405 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW FAR TO 45 NW ELO TO 20 SW GNA TO 20 SE AXN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 ..WEINMAN..06/13/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 405 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-069-077-089-113-135-130240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI KITTSON LAKE OF THE WOODS MARSHALL PENNINGTON ROSEAU NDC067-099-130240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PEMBINA WALSH WIC003-005-007-031-129-130240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BARRON BAYFIELD Read more

WW 405 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD WI LS 122030Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northern and central Minnesota eastern North Dakota far northeastern South Dakota northwestern Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 4:30 PM or so across the eastern North Dakota/northwestern Minnesota area, with storms quickly becoming severe. Very large/destructive hail, and strong/damaging wind gusts are expected, with a tornado or two also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Fargo ND to 35 miles east of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Goss Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF MN/WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains this evening. ...Parts of MN/WI into IA/eastern NE... A few supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of MN, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear. These storms may persist for a few hours this evening and spread into parts of WI, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes. An eventual weakening trend is expected later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase regionwide. Farther south, an intense supercell cluster is ongoing near the NE/IA border, north of Omaha, within a strongly unstable and favorable sheared environment. This cluster may continue south-southeastward along the instability gradient, before storms weaken later tonight due to increasing MLCINH. The potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts will continue as long as this cluster persists. Overnight, some guidance (including recent HRRR runs) suggest potential for elevated storm development from SD into southwest MN. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support a strong storm or two with an isolated hail threat. ..Dean.. 06/13/2024 Read more