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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri and northern/central Illinois. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible. A broader corridor of severe hail/wind potential will extend from portions of the southern/central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Overall prior forecast appears reasonably on-track. Only minor changes were made based on latest observational trends. This was largely to the west/north side of ongoing convection/frontal placement from MI to IA and in south FL. For additional short-term forecast information, please see MCD 1248 regarding the south-central High Plains and MCD 1249 for the Mid-MS to Lower MO Valleys. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough with associated westerly mid/upper-level jet will move eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. An attendant surface cold front will likewise sweep eastward across these regions through this evening, with the primary surface cyclone forecast to remain in Canada. Partly cloudy skies this morning should give way to better opportunity for diurnal heating this afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence along the front, along with ascent associated with shortwave trough/mid-level jet, should encourage convective development along/near the front by mid afternoon across parts of Lower MI into northern IL/IN and vicinity. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear are forecast to support robust thunderstorms with a threat for scattered damaging winds and severe hail. The magnitude of the severe threat will be dependent on how much instability can develop, with differences remaining in high-resolution guidance regarding both how much convection develops, and how intense it will become. Regardless, some severe threat remains apparent, and the Marginal/Slight Risks have been maintained across this region with minimal changes for this update. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... A surface cold front is progged to sag more slowly south-southeastward across the mid MS Valley today, with better forcing aloft generally remaining to the north across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s, will remain along/south of this boundary across the mid MS Valley. Robust daytime heating of this airmass, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) by mid/late afternoon from southeast NE/northeast KS into southern IA/northern MO and vicinity. Warm mid-level temperatures noted on area 12Z soundings (700 mb temperatures of 13+ C) will likely inhibit robust convective development for much of the day, until surface temperatures reach at least the low 90s and finally erode lingering MLCIN. Explosive thunderstorm development is likely by 20-22Z along/near the front, as strong instability combines with enhanced deep-layer shear to support an threat for multiple intense supercells. Very large hail of at least 2-3 inches in diameter, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, will be a threat with these initially discrete supercells. With mid-level westerly flow largely parallel to the surface boundary, a quick transition/upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters seems likely by early evening. This activity should tend to have a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for some significant gusts of 75-80 mph. The severe wind/hail threat should continue in a relatively narrow corridor this evening across the mid MS Valley, before increasing MLCIN and nocturnal cooling gradually reduce the overall severe risk tonight. ...Kansas into the Southern/Central High Plains... A hot and deeply mixed airmass is anticipated along/near the front across KS into the southern/central High Plains. This region will generally be displaced to the south of stronger forcing aloft, and warm mid-level temperatures may inhibit convection for much of the day. Still, most guidance suggests isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop with a very well mixed boundary layer and steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Severe/damaging downdraft winds appear to be the main threat with this activity, although some hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can form. Based on latest guidance trends, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward to include more of western KS and eastern CO. Isolated significant severe wind gusts (75+ mph) may occur with any loosely organized clusters across KS. But, weaker deep-layer shear compared with locations farther east suggests the overall severe threat will probably remain fairly isolated. ...South Florida... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of south FL. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear may support occasional strong/gusty winds with the more robust activity this afternoon and early evening. A brief tornado or two may also occur given modestly enhanced low-level flow. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri and northern/central Illinois. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible. A broader corridor of severe hail/wind potential will extend from portions of the southern/central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Overall prior forecast appears reasonably on-track. Only minor changes were made based on latest observational trends. This was largely to the west/north side of ongoing convection/frontal placement from MI to IA and in south FL. For additional short-term forecast information, please see MCD 1248 regarding the south-central High Plains and MCD 1249 for the Mid-MS to Lower MO Valleys. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough with associated westerly mid/upper-level jet will move eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. An attendant surface cold front will likewise sweep eastward across these regions through this evening, with the primary surface cyclone forecast to remain in Canada. Partly cloudy skies this morning should give way to better opportunity for diurnal heating this afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence along the front, along with ascent associated with shortwave trough/mid-level jet, should encourage convective development along/near the front by mid afternoon across parts of Lower MI into northern IL/IN and vicinity. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear are forecast to support robust thunderstorms with a threat for scattered damaging winds and severe hail. The magnitude of the severe threat will be dependent on how much instability can develop, with differences remaining in high-resolution guidance regarding both how much convection develops, and how intense it will become. Regardless, some severe threat remains apparent, and the Marginal/Slight Risks have been maintained across this region with minimal changes for this update. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... A surface cold front is progged to sag more slowly south-southeastward across the mid MS Valley today, with better forcing aloft generally remaining to the north across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s, will remain along/south of this boundary across the mid MS Valley. Robust daytime heating of this airmass, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) by mid/late afternoon from southeast NE/northeast KS into southern IA/northern MO and vicinity. Warm mid-level temperatures noted on area 12Z soundings (700 mb temperatures of 13+ C) will likely inhibit robust convective development for much of the day, until surface temperatures reach at least the low 90s and finally erode lingering MLCIN. Explosive thunderstorm development is likely by 20-22Z along/near the front, as strong instability combines with enhanced deep-layer shear to support an threat for multiple intense supercells. Very large hail of at least 2-3 inches in diameter, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, will be a threat with these initially discrete supercells. With mid-level westerly flow largely parallel to the surface boundary, a quick transition/upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters seems likely by early evening. This activity should tend to have a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for some significant gusts of 75-80 mph. The severe wind/hail threat should continue in a relatively narrow corridor this evening across the mid MS Valley, before increasing MLCIN and nocturnal cooling gradually reduce the overall severe risk tonight. ...Kansas into the Southern/Central High Plains... A hot and deeply mixed airmass is anticipated along/near the front across KS into the southern/central High Plains. This region will generally be displaced to the south of stronger forcing aloft, and warm mid-level temperatures may inhibit convection for much of the day. Still, most guidance suggests isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop with a very well mixed boundary layer and steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Severe/damaging downdraft winds appear to be the main threat with this activity, although some hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can form. Based on latest guidance trends, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward to include more of western KS and eastern CO. Isolated significant severe wind gusts (75+ mph) may occur with any loosely organized clusters across KS. But, weaker deep-layer shear compared with locations farther east suggests the overall severe threat will probably remain fairly isolated. ...South Florida... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of south FL. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear may support occasional strong/gusty winds with the more robust activity this afternoon and early evening. A brief tornado or two may also occur given modestly enhanced low-level flow. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and early evening across parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri and northern/central Illinois. Very large hail, destructive wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes all appear possible. A broader corridor of severe hail/wind potential will extend from portions of the southern/central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...20Z Update... Overall prior forecast appears reasonably on-track. Only minor changes were made based on latest observational trends. This was largely to the west/north side of ongoing convection/frontal placement from MI to IA and in south FL. For additional short-term forecast information, please see MCD 1248 regarding the south-central High Plains and MCD 1249 for the Mid-MS to Lower MO Valleys. ..Grams.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough with associated westerly mid/upper-level jet will move eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. An attendant surface cold front will likewise sweep eastward across these regions through this evening, with the primary surface cyclone forecast to remain in Canada. Partly cloudy skies this morning should give way to better opportunity for diurnal heating this afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence along the front, along with ascent associated with shortwave trough/mid-level jet, should encourage convective development along/near the front by mid afternoon across parts of Lower MI into northern IL/IN and vicinity. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear are forecast to support robust thunderstorms with a threat for scattered damaging winds and severe hail. The magnitude of the severe threat will be dependent on how much instability can develop, with differences remaining in high-resolution guidance regarding both how much convection develops, and how intense it will become. Regardless, some severe threat remains apparent, and the Marginal/Slight Risks have been maintained across this region with minimal changes for this update. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... A surface cold front is progged to sag more slowly south-southeastward across the mid MS Valley today, with better forcing aloft generally remaining to the north across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s, will remain along/south of this boundary across the mid MS Valley. Robust daytime heating of this airmass, along with steep mid-level lapse rates, will promote moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) by mid/late afternoon from southeast NE/northeast KS into southern IA/northern MO and vicinity. Warm mid-level temperatures noted on area 12Z soundings (700 mb temperatures of 13+ C) will likely inhibit robust convective development for much of the day, until surface temperatures reach at least the low 90s and finally erode lingering MLCIN. Explosive thunderstorm development is likely by 20-22Z along/near the front, as strong instability combines with enhanced deep-layer shear to support an threat for multiple intense supercells. Very large hail of at least 2-3 inches in diameter, and perhaps a couple tornadoes, will be a threat with these initially discrete supercells. With mid-level westerly flow largely parallel to the surface boundary, a quick transition/upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters seems likely by early evening. This activity should tend to have a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for some significant gusts of 75-80 mph. The severe wind/hail threat should continue in a relatively narrow corridor this evening across the mid MS Valley, before increasing MLCIN and nocturnal cooling gradually reduce the overall severe risk tonight. ...Kansas into the Southern/Central High Plains... A hot and deeply mixed airmass is anticipated along/near the front across KS into the southern/central High Plains. This region will generally be displaced to the south of stronger forcing aloft, and warm mid-level temperatures may inhibit convection for much of the day. Still, most guidance suggests isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop with a very well mixed boundary layer and steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Severe/damaging downdraft winds appear to be the main threat with this activity, although some hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can form. Based on latest guidance trends, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward to include more of western KS and eastern CO. Isolated significant severe wind gusts (75+ mph) may occur with any loosely organized clusters across KS. But, weaker deep-layer shear compared with locations farther east suggests the overall severe threat will probably remain fairly isolated. ...South Florida... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of south FL. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor, sufficient instability and deep-layer shear may support occasional strong/gusty winds with the more robust activity this afternoon and early evening. A brief tornado or two may also occur given modestly enhanced low-level flow. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Areas affected...Upper MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131655Z - 131900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or hail are possible across Upper Michigan as thunderstorm coverage increasing this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a gradually increasing depth to the cumulus along and just ahead of the cold front pushing southeastward across the region. Regional radar imagery and lightning data reveal that convective initiation has occurred across Marquette County MI as well as the cell that is just offshore north of the Marquette/Alger county line. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next hour or so as the airmass continues to destabilize and the front pushes southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to remain fairly modest with MLCAPE likely remaining below 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is already strong, with the MQT VAD sampling over 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, with some additional strengthening possible as mid-level flow increases. General expectation is for a fast-moving multicellular mode, with a few isolated storms briefly becoming strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps even an instance or two of hail. Severe coverage is expected to be limited, likely precluding the need for watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 46108488 46018527 45878606 45668668 45608765 45788859 46278912 46748832 46808669 46838566 46798482 46108488 Read more

WW 0408 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0408 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more