Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0219 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0219 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0219 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level trough over the western Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley and a mid- to upper-level low situated over eastern UT. A broad belt of strong westerly 500-mb flow will extend from the Desert Southwest eastward across the southern Great Plains and to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast. Satellite imagery also depicts an embedded disturbance quickly moving east across AL into western GA late this morning. Another upstream disturbance is currently moving east-northeast across northern Mexico into the Rio Grande Valley/Edwards Plateau late this morning. In the low levels, a surface low over the OH Valley is largely displaced from the area of greatest severe thunderstorm concern today, which is located from TX east to the GA/SC vicinity. A myriad of ongoing thunderstorm bands and convective outflow over the Southeast will serve as corridors for additional and continued thunderstorm activity through at least the early to mid afternoon. Farther west, a dryline and west-east oriented frontal zone over north TX east to the ArkLaMiss will also act to focus severe thunderstorm development later today and tonight. ...North, central and east TX... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the aforementioned mid-level disturbance across central and eventually into eastern portions of TX. Storm development will likely initially favor near and north of a frontal zone draped across north TX with dryline storms later this afternoon. The Fort Worth and Del Rio, TX raobs sampled 8-9 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Very large CAPE via a very moist boundary layer will likely favor explosive updraft growth as storms quickly become supercellular. Low-level shear will likely be subdued due to lack of a strong low-level mass response, thereby acting to limit overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a few supercells within an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and moist low levels will potentially yield some tornado risk via local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. Large to giant hail --potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be the primary threats. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Southeast... Bands of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing during the midday will likely continue to propagate east-southeast across eastern AL into GA and SC. A very moist/unstable airmass evident in the 12z Birmingham and Atlanta raobs (1800 and 1300 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to gradually destabilize, despite considerable cloud coverage across AL/GA. Fewer clouds across south-central GA into the coastal plain of SC will continue to heat more rapidly downstream of the ongoing storms and yield an environment favorable for a continued damaging-wind risk through the mid to late afternoon. For short-term convective details and environmental analysis, please refer to MCD #728 and forthcoming MCDs over the region. Farther west, from western AL westward into LA this afternoon, weak large-scale subsidence in wake of the AL/GA impulse will probably act to limit storm coverage during the day. Isolated severe storms are possible as the airmass continues to destabilize and potentially yield an isolated hail/wind threat. Later this evening into the overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over the Arklatex and move east across LA into MS and eventually MS/AL/FL Panhandle. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) and the risk for a few tornadoes will probably accompany this activity as it moves east during the evening and overnight. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across portions of the OH Valley, with damaging gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Some heating coupled with lower 60s surface dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/09/2024 Read more

WW 0216 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE LGC TO 20 NNE MCN TO 25 WSW AGS. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-033-079-125-153-163-169-171-199-207-225-231-285-289- 293-303-319-091740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BURKE CRAWFORD GLASCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JONES LAMAR MERIWETHER MONROE PEACH PIKE TROUP TWIGGS UPSON WASHINGTON WILKINSON SCC009-011-027-075-091740- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAMBERG BARNWELL CLARENDON ORANGEBURG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more