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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024 Read more

MD 1285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX PERMIAN BASIN INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Areas affected...TX Permian Basin into far southeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160409Z - 160545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat could persist into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is moving southeastward toward Midland late this evening. While MLCINH is increasing and the longevity of this cell is uncertain, steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z MAF sounding) will continue to support a large hail threat for as long as this storm persists, along with some potential for localized severe gusts. Farther west, elevated convection is gradually increasing across southeast NM, along the western periphery of deeper low-level moisture. This convection is possibly being aided by a subtle southern-stream vorticity maximum, and some recent CAM guidance suggests that a strong storm or two could emerge out of this developing area of convection, and move eastward with an isolated hail threat into the early overnight hours. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33440448 33740428 33880336 33110204 32440144 31810121 31570228 31990272 32310322 32530352 33440448 Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE 2WX TO 30 NE DIK TO 35 WNW MOT TO 65 NNW MOT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-037-041-049-055-057-059-065-075-083-101-160640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE 2WX TO 30 NE DIK TO 35 WNW MOT TO 65 NNW MOT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-037-041-049-055-057-059-065-075-083-101-160640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE 2WX TO 30 NE DIK TO 35 WNW MOT TO 65 NNW MOT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-037-041-049-055-057-059-065-075-083-101-160640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE 2WX TO 30 NE DIK TO 35 WNW MOT TO 65 NNW MOT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-037-041-049-055-057-059-065-075-083-101-160640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE 2WX TO 30 NE DIK TO 35 WNW MOT TO 65 NNW MOT. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-037-041-049-055-057-059-065-075-083-101-160640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER RENVILLE SHERIDAN WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 422 TORNADO ND 160105Z - 160700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central North Dakota * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 805 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A couple of isolated severe thunderstorms are possible early this evening. Large to very large hail and a tornado are possible with this activity. A band of severe thunderstorms is forecast to move from west to east from western into central portions of North Dakota later this evening into tonight. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) will be the primary hazard with the stronger outflow surges. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Minot ND to 60 miles south southeast of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...WW 419...WW 420...WW 421... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160500
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore Central America:
A trough of low pressure centered just offshore of the southern
coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for some
development of this system, and a short-lived tropical depression
could form early next week if the system stays offshore.
Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America.
These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0423 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FNB TO 15 E LWD TO 35 NNE DSM TO 35 WNW CID. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC099-117-125-153-169-181-185-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LUCAS MARION POLK STORY WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FNB TO 15 E LWD TO 35 NNE DSM TO 35 WNW CID. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC099-117-125-153-169-181-185-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LUCAS MARION POLK STORY WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FNB TO 15 E LWD TO 35 NNE DSM TO 35 WNW CID. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC099-117-125-153-169-181-185-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LUCAS MARION POLK STORY WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FNB TO 15 E LWD TO 35 NNE DSM TO 35 WNW CID. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC099-117-125-153-169-181-185-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LUCAS MARION POLK STORY WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FNB TO 15 E LWD TO 35 NNE DSM TO 35 WNW CID. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC099-117-125-153-169-181-185-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LUCAS MARION POLK STORY WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0421 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW FNB TO 15 E LWD TO 35 NNE DSM TO 35 WNW CID. ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 421 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC099-117-125-153-169-181-185-160540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LUCAS MARION POLK STORY WARREN WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 421 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO 160025Z - 160700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Far Northeastern Kansas Northwest Missouri * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 725 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move northeastward into the Watch area this evening. Severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the more intense portions of the squall line as it likely progresses west to east across much of the Watch area. A tornado is possible, especially with any longer-lived mesovortex circulation embedded within the line. A large hail risk may accompany more cellular storms later this evening into the early overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northeast of Fort Dodge IA to 40 miles west of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...WW 419...WW 420... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW BHK TO 30 SW DIK TO 35 SE ISN TO 45 ENE ISN TO 70 NNE ISN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 ..DEAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-011-013-015-025-037-041-049-053-055-057-059-061-065- 075-083-087-089-101-160540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE BURLEIGH DUNN GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER RENVILLE SHERIDAN SLOPE STARK WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more