Aggregator

WW 228 SEVERE TSTM AL FL CW 100655Z - 101200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning from 155 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Well-organized clusters of storms will continue to move east-southeastward into the region overnight, the most robust storms posing a severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Mobile AL to 10 miles south southeast of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 226...WW 227... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave across the southern Plains will be complicated by the evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms as well as the coverage and intensity of any early morning showers and thunderstorms. General expectation is that a large area of warm-air advection, with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, will exist from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX. General cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms is expected to persist over these areas throughout the day. Moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated to the south and west of this cloudiness, with some heating as well. This will likely result in fairly narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Uncertainty regarding the convective evolution, and resulting location of an outflow, precluding outlooking higher that 5%/Marginal probabilities with this outlook. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through the Upper Midwest. The airmass preceding this front will likely destabilize as surface temperatures climb into the mid 70s amid low/mid 50s dewpoints and cold temperatures aloft. Some thunderstorm development is possible along the front, but weak vertical shear should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character, limiting the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more