Aggregator

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SPA TO 35 SSW CLT TO 45 WSW SOP TO 5 NNW SOP TO 15 SSW RDU. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC007-013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-065-079-085-093-095- 101-103-105-107-117-125-129-133-137-141-147-153-155-163-165-177- 179-187-191-195-102040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON SCC017-023-025-027-031-033-039-041-043-051-055-057-061-063-067- 069-071-079-085-087-089-102040- SC Read more

MD 0747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...the central and eastern Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101705Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are likely to develop after 18Z over the central Carolinas, producing damaging hail and wind through early evening as they eventually exit the Atlantic Coast. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a deepening trough extending from southeast VA across central NC and into northern SC, with temperatures heating into the upper 70s F. Dewpoints remain in the 60s F, but may gradually mix down a few degrees by peak heating. Morning soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates in place, as well as ample deep-layer shear with mid to high level flow of 50 to 100 kt. This combination is resulting in a favorable environment for large hail, and perhaps a few fast-moving bowing structures with damaging winds. As of 17Z, visible imagery is already showing developing towering CU over northern SC and into central NC. The presence of cirrus from the MCS to the south may have slowed heating a bit, but clearing should continue, aiding destabilization. Scattered to numerous storms are expected to form over the next few hours along the boundary, with both cells and congealing line segments possible. Some of the more isolated hail storms may produce large amounts of 1.00 to 1.75" hail, with cold, severe downdrafts possible as well. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 36477580 36067555 35617536 35267540 34297619 33587712 33267817 33177918 33237939 33558008 33958119 34068173 34308213 34608220 34778200 34858121 35068026 35367944 35677864 35867814 36307714 36477580 Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0231 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0231 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 10 17:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more