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WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE JMS TO 30 ENE DVL TO 30 NNW HCO. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC063-067-099-161040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NELSON PEMBINA WALSH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 423 SEVERE TSTM ND 160500Z - 161100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Northeast North Dakota * Effective this Sunday morning from Midnight until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely continue east across northern and into northeast North Dakota tonight. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) will be the primary risk with the stronger surges and embedded bowing segments within the thunderstorm band. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Devils Lake ND to 25 miles north of Grand Forks ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 421...WW 422... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Smith Read more

MD 1288 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... FOR NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...northeast ND into far northwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423... Valid 160757Z - 160930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 continues. SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will continue shifting east through early morning. DISCUSSION...A line of storms will continue tracking east near 40 mph the next couple of hours, taking convection across northeast ND into far northwest MN. Measured gusts the past hour or so have typically been less than 50 kt. A southerly 850 mb low-level jet around 25-30 kt ahead of convection, coupled with sufficient instability and deep-layer shear, will maintain organized convection for at least another couple of hours. Instability rapidly wanes with eastward extent into MN as low-level moisture decreases, and storms should weaken as they enter northwest MN. Locally strong/isolated severe gusts of 45-60 mph will remain possible in the short term across northeast ND. A downstream watch and/or aerial watch extension is not expected. ..Leitman.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49099846 49049645 48569627 48089675 47789759 47589878 47679972 47989998 48679951 49079933 49099846 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Wednesday/D4 into Thursday/D5, an upper trough will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay, with the base of the trough shifting out of ND/MN. This wave will continue east/northeast into Quebec, flattening the ridge over the northeastern states. Meanwhile, upper troughing will exist over the Great Basin, with moderately cool temperatures aloft. Scattered storms will be likely along the trailing front from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes, with perhaps a marginal severe risk given weaker shear and instability. Models indicate this western trough may emerge into the northern Plains Friday/D6 into Saturday/D7, providing perhaps 40 kt midlevel westerly winds and modest cooling aloft. Such a system may support areas of strong storms, but overall the threat does not appear particularly high. However, pockets of stronger instability could support scattered hail and wind. Read more

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW JMS TO 10 NNE DVL TO 55 W HCO TO 60 WNW HCO. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC019-063-067-071-099-160940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAVALIER NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY WALSH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1287 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421... FOR PORTIONS OF IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1287 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421... Valid 160647Z - 160815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may sporadically produce hail the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms on the back side of an MCV over western/central IA have occasionally intensified the past hour or so. Midlevel lapse rates will remain weak over the area due to earlier convection. However, sufficient instability is present on the periphery of the MCV, along with enhanced vertical shear, to sustain briefly strong storms. As convection develops east/northeast, overall weakening is expected as the airmass becomes less favorable for severe storms. A new watch is not expected, and WW 421 will expire at 07z. ..Leitman.. 06/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42019570 42469571 42779548 42999492 42869394 42519324 42029304 41539291 41289316 41379404 41569479 41949567 42019570 Read more

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE N60 TO 25 NW DVL TO 70 N DVL. ..LEITMAN..06/16/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-019-027-063-067-071-095-099-103-160840- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON CAVALIER EDDY NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY TOWNER WALSH WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common over a very large region south of the cold front. ...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley... Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter, modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front, where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common over a very large region south of the cold front. ...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley... Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter, modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front, where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common over a very large region south of the cold front. ...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley... Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter, modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front, where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common over a very large region south of the cold front. ...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley... Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter, modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front, where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 Read more