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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central High Plains into much of central and eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Sunday. A few severe storms are also anticipated from parts of Wisconsin into Michigan. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt upper trough will move from CO and NM into the central and southern Plains, with a broad area of 50-60 kt midlevel southwesterlies across TX, OK and LA. Temperatures aloft are forecast to warm during the day over much of central and eastern TX, with increasing thicknesses through at least 00Z. A weak surface trough will develop over the central high Plains southwest into western TX, with a warm front lifting north across TX and LA. To the north, cyclonic flow aloft will increase over the upper Great Lakes as an upper low moves across Ontario. A cold front will extend southwestward across MI and WI during the afternoon, providing a focus for daytime storms. ...TX and LA... Robust boundary layer moisture with mid 70s F dewpoints will spread north along with a warm front throughout the day, beneath persistent 40-50 kt midlevel winds. Substantial early day convection is expected within the broad warm advection regime, and some of this activity could produce periodic hail given favorable effective shear. Behind the initial activity, additional diurnal storms are forecast from parts of central into eastern TX by late afternoon. Uncertainty exists regarding the effective warm front position as substantial outflow may be produced by earlier storms. However, an east-west oriented corridor of greater severe threat is expected along the instability gradient. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg appears likely, which will aid robust storms, perhaps a few supercells, producing large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk will depend on mesoscale factors including boundary positions, but clearly there is potential as low-level shear will be favorable along the warm front. ...WI into MI... Strong heating will occur in advance of the cold front, with an uncapped air mass developing by midday. Cool temperatures aloft combined with steepening lapse rates will maximize instability despite dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s F, with perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE developing. Convergence along the front will likely yield afternoon storms after 18Z from northern WI into Upper MI, with increasing coverage along the front through late afternoon. The cold temperatures aloft and modest shear may favor marginally severe hail, with areas of strong severe gusts expected as outflow production is enhanced along the line of storms. ..Jewell.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more