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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may persist this evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts will continue to be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. ...Eastern NM into TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from southeast NM into west TX. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell maintenance for a few hours this evening, before CINH increases later tonight. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats with these storms. In addition, backed low-level flow and enhanced SRH near a surface boundary will support the threat for a tornado or two across east-central NM. Farther east, a long-lived elevated supercell is moving across central TX. This storm has recently shown signs of weakening, but other storms are gradually increasing across east TX. Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out across a broad area from northwest into east TX late tonight, but the threat appears to nebulous to make a large expansion of the Marginal Risk at this time. ...Southwest PA into western MD/eastern WV/far northern VA... Despite cool temperatures (generally in the 50s F) and very modest instability, supercells developed earlier this afternoon from eastern OH into western PA, aided by a southeastward-moving shortwave trough and cold temperatures aloft. A couple stronger cells remain possible across western MD and eastern WV (and perhaps into far northern VA) this evening, though downstream instability will become increasingly negligible with time. Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible with these cells until they weaken later tonight. ...Northern ND/MN... High-based convection is moving across parts of northern ND/MN this evening. While weak buoyancy may tend to limit storm organization, strong heating/mixing across the region earlier this afternoon and steep tropospheric lapse rates will support localized strong/damaging gusts through the evening as convection spreads southward. ..Dean.. 05/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may persist this evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts will continue to be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. ...Eastern NM into TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from southeast NM into west TX. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell maintenance for a few hours this evening, before CINH increases later tonight. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats with these storms. In addition, backed low-level flow and enhanced SRH near a surface boundary will support the threat for a tornado or two across east-central NM. Farther east, a long-lived elevated supercell is moving across central TX. This storm has recently shown signs of weakening, but other storms are gradually increasing across east TX. Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out across a broad area from northwest into east TX late tonight, but the threat appears to nebulous to make a large expansion of the Marginal Risk at this time. ...Southwest PA into western MD/eastern WV/far northern VA... Despite cool temperatures (generally in the 50s F) and very modest instability, supercells developed earlier this afternoon from eastern OH into western PA, aided by a southeastward-moving shortwave trough and cold temperatures aloft. A couple stronger cells remain possible across western MD and eastern WV (and perhaps into far northern VA) this evening, though downstream instability will become increasingly negligible with time. Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible with these cells until they weaken later tonight. ...Northern ND/MN... High-based convection is moving across parts of northern ND/MN this evening. While weak buoyancy may tend to limit storm organization, strong heating/mixing across the region earlier this afternoon and steep tropospheric lapse rates will support localized strong/damaging gusts through the evening as convection spreads southward. ..Dean.. 05/12/2024 Read more

MD 0753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northern North Dakota into far northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112156Z - 120030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts could occur with the stronger storm cores. The overall severe threat should remain isolated though, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...High-based/low-topped convection continues to meander along the International border, and is poised to overspread portions of far northern ND and MN over the next few hours. Very steep tropospheric lapse rates precede these storms, which support adequate evaporative cooling and associated downward momentum transport. As such, the stronger shower/thunderstorm cores could produce a few damaging gusts (including those approaching severe thresholds), even if only virga is present. Still, the overall severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47419497 47229698 47580003 47630050 48080211 48920360 49339712 48969445 48529422 47989470 47419497 Read more

MD 0753 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0753 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northern North Dakota into far northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112156Z - 120030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts could occur with the stronger storm cores. The overall severe threat should remain isolated though, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...High-based/low-topped convection continues to meander along the International border, and is poised to overspread portions of far northern ND and MN over the next few hours. Very steep tropospheric lapse rates precede these storms, which support adequate evaporative cooling and associated downward momentum transport. As such, the stronger shower/thunderstorm cores could produce a few damaging gusts (including those approaching severe thresholds), even if only virga is present. Still, the overall severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 47419497 47229698 47580003 47630050 48080211 48920360 49339712 48969445 48529422 47989470 47419497 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat May 11 22:41:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 11 21:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An amplified southern stream jet and shortwave trough are forecast to move across the southern US late this weekend into early next week. Widespread precipitation and thunderstorms are expected from the southern and central Plains across the central and eastern US through midweek. Thereafter, West Coast ridging is forecast to amplify, forcing northwesterly flow aloft, and several weak troughs over much of the central CONUS through midweek. Wetter than average and cooler than average conditions appear likely to limit widespread fire-weather concerns for much of next week. More zonal flow aloft is forecast to return late next week into the weekend as the ridge breaks down. Stronger flow aloft may support more widespread dry and breezy conditions over the southern Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though confidence in any particular solution at this range is low. ...Florida Peninsula... One exception to the forecast widespread rainfall may be across parts of southern and central FL next week. Developing short-term drought over the southern half to two-thirds of the FL Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Displaced from the higher rain chances, minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F. Dry northerly winds may increase D5/Wed-D6/Thu as another cold front approaches, but the expected extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain too low for higher probabilities. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111858Z - 112100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms within the higher terrain of central New Mexico may produce large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. A watch is not anticipated this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is increasing this afternoon across portions of central New Mexico. Despite dewpoints in the 40s F, this has allowed convection to develop on the higher terrain. A few low-topped storms are possible this afternoon. Long hodographs and around -17 C temperatures at 500 mb should promote some risk for large hail. These storms will progress northeastward, but will encounter a more stable environment at lower elevations. That said, storms may peak in intensity over the next 1-2 hours. A storm west of Los Alamos did show some signs of stronger low-level rotation in the last 30 minutes. The KABX VAD profile has modest low-level turning. The tornado threat will be tempered by the limited spatial extent of a favorable environment and generally marginally intense storms, but a brief tornado is at least possible. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 34980722 36020720 36410666 36200577 35550545 34660518 34190554 34220613 34980722 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... Minor updates were made to expand the Marginal southward in to West Virginia to cover potential for additional thunderstorm development further south with potential for hail and wind. Updates were made to expand the 2% tornado risk within the Marginal Risk across central New Mexico. See MCD #0752 for additional information. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. Read more