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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SPA TO 35 SSW CLT TO 45 SSE CLT TO 40 NW FLO TO 35 NNW FLO TO 20 S SOP TO 20 N FAY TO 15 NW GSB TO 20 E RWI TO 35 ESE RZZ. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-065-079-085-093-095-101- 103-107-117-129-133-137-141-147-155-163-165-177-187-191-195- 102140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON SCC017-023-025-027-031-033-039-041-043-051-055-057-061-063-067- 069-071-079-085-087-089-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SPA TO 35 SSW CLT TO 45 SSE CLT TO 40 NW FLO TO 35 NNW FLO TO 20 S SOP TO 20 N FAY TO 15 NW GSB TO 20 E RWI TO 35 ESE RZZ. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-065-079-085-093-095-101- 103-107-117-129-133-137-141-147-155-163-165-177-187-191-195- 102140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON SCC017-023-025-027-031-033-039-041-043-051-055-057-061-063-067- 069-071-079-085-087-089-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SPA TO 35 SSW CLT TO 45 SSE CLT TO 40 NW FLO TO 35 NNW FLO TO 20 S SOP TO 20 N FAY TO 15 NW GSB TO 20 E RWI TO 35 ESE RZZ. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-065-079-085-093-095-101- 103-107-117-129-133-137-141-147-155-163-165-177-187-191-195- 102140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON SCC017-023-025-027-031-033-039-041-043-051-055-057-061-063-067- 069-071-079-085-087-089-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). Read more