Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization
with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico. However, recently received satellite
wind data suggests the system does not yet possess a well-defined
center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form over the next day or two. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
several days, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure has developed well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and recent shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with the system is showing some
signs of organization. Some additional development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the end of this
week. This system is forecast to move slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW EVV TO 25 E OWB TO 25 WSW SDF TO 45 WSW LUK. ..LEITMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC027-029-031-059-061-085-091-093-099-101-103-111-123-149-163- 177-179-183-185-211-215-223-301840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENDERSON HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE MCLEAN MEADE MUHLENBERG NELSON OHIO OLDHAM SHELBY SPENCER TRIMBLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW EVV TO 25 E OWB TO 25 WSW SDF TO 45 WSW LUK. ..LEITMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC027-029-031-059-061-085-091-093-099-101-103-111-123-149-163- 177-179-183-185-211-215-223-301840- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENDERSON HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE MCLEAN MEADE MUHLENBERG NELSON OHIO OLDHAM SHELBY SPENCER TRIMBLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...FAR EASTERN NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. Highest severe potential is expected across IA Wednesday evening. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging is forecast to persist across much of the southern CONUS on Wednesday, with modestly enhanced westerly flow north of this ridging across the northern CONUS. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this westerly flow, with the easternmost shortwave expected to progress eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another shortwave trough, likely enhanced by ongoing deep convection, is forecast to move across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. The most well-defined shortwave trough in the series will likely move into the northern/central Plains during the early afternoon, continuing into MN/IA late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. General expectation is for the surface pattern Wednesday morning to be characterized by troughing across the Plains, with several embedded surface lows, and extensive ridging centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico and covering much of the Southeast. Primary surface low attendant to the shortwave trough progressing into the northern/central Plains is expected to begin the period over the central NE/SD border vicinity before then tracking into the NE/SD/IA border region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low, and will gradually move southeastward as the parent low moves east. Surface pattern east of the Plains into the Mid MS and OH Valleys will be complicated by the evolution of preceding thunderstorm clusters (and associated outflow) as well as by any thunderstorms generated by these shortwave troughs. Even with this uncertainty, a sharpening, warm-front-like boundary will likely extend from the low over NE/SD southeastward into southern IL, with the eastern portion over southern IL potentially modulated by ongoing storms. ...Mid MS/OH Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning through the afternoon and evening... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the southeastern IA/northern IL/northeast MO vicinity early Wednesday morning as storms which are expected to develop across IA late Tuesday night continue southeastward. Most likely scenario is for these storms to gradually weaken throughout the morning as the low-level jet weakens and the storms become increasingly displaced eastward. However, there is a low-probability scenario where this cluster is organized enough to maintain its intensity throughout the morning. Given the low-probability and general forecast uncertainty, only Marginal/5% wind probabilities will be maintained for this region with this outlook. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated downstream from the upper OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians as the remnants from the early morning storms move into a moist, and diurnally destabilized airmass. Shear will be weak, with a multicellular, pulse mode anticipated. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mid MS Valley into the central/southern Plains... Southerly flow will continue to advect ample low-level moisture into the warm sector ahead of the cold front associated with the shortwave trough moving into the northern/central Plains, with low 70s dewpoints likely reaching southern MN by early Wednesday afternoon. Robust heating amid this high low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and very strong buoyancy, with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE throughout much of the warm sector. Thunderstorm development is expected to begin across SD and MN during the afternoon, with the environmental conditions supporting strong to severe storms. Large to very large hail is possible initially, particularly across eastern SD and southern MN where buoyancy is highest. Thunderstorm development is then expected to expand southwestward along the front, from SD into KS (potentially even the TX/OK Panhandles). A more outflow-dominant storm character is anticipated with southern extend as weaker shear preclude updraft organization. Organization into a forward-propagating MCS appears likely Wednesday evening, with the potential for significant-severe gusts stretching into IA. This MCS will likely still be ongoing early Thursday morning across IL, although the strength and organization of the MCS at that time is uncertain. Enough buoyancy should still be in place to support severe if the MCS remains organized. ..Mosier.. 07/30/2024 Read more

WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LWD TO 35 SSE OTM TO 40 NW BRL. ..LEITMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-067-149-301840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK PIKE IAC111-177-301840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEE VAN BUREN MOC001-007-041-045-079-081-103-111-115-121-127-129-137-163-171- 173-175-197-199-205-211-301840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDRAIN CHARITON CLARK GRUNDY HARRISON Read more