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WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE VIH TO 20 WNW MDH TO 30 E MDH TO 40 WSW EVV. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-059-069-077-087-127-151-153-157-165-181-199-310040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON INC051-129-147-163-173-310040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145- 149-157-177-219-221-225-233-310040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 571 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 302000Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Illinois Western Kentucky Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon and evening. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds should occur, with some potential for a swath of severe winds up to 60-75 mph as convection spreads east-southeastward. Scattered large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter may also occur with any more discrete thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO to 30 miles south southwest of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 568...WW 570... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-021-029-031-037-043-045-047-051-055-057-059-065-083-085- 093-103-310040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN WELLS SDC021-031-041-045-089-129-310040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS MCPHERSON WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 573 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 302140Z - 310400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Dakota North Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are intensifying over western ND/SD. These storms will track eastward this afternoon and evening, posing a risk of large hail and locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles southwest of Bismarck ND to 20 miles south southeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 570...WW 571...WW 572... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 ..WEINMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-031-071-089-103-115-149-171-183-310040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER SDC007-023-053-055-071-095-121-123-137-310040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CHARLES MIX GREGORY HAAKON JACKSON MELLETTE TODD TRIPP ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 572 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 302130Z - 310400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Nebraska South Central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly intensifying near the Nebraska-South Dakota border. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds for several hours this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west northwest of Valentine NE to 20 miles east northeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 570...WW 571... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 30 22:57:11 UTC 2024.

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYS TO 35 SSE TYS. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-302340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0570 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYS TO 35 SSE TYS. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC039-043-302340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 570 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 301820Z - 310100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky Middle and Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon and early evening, while posing a threat for mainly damaging/severe winds up to 55-70 mph. Isolated, marginally severe hail may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Bowling Green KY to 30 miles north northeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 568...WW 569... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0574 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 574 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 574 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-013-015-047-055-057-059-067-083-085-089-097-105-111-115- 117-119-121-123-129-135-137-139-147-157-187-195-213-219-221-223- 227-233-241-247-257-281-291-295-297-311-313-302340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLARKE COBB DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GILMER GORDON GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HART JACKSON LUMPKIN MADISON MURRAY OCONEE OGLETHORPE PAULDING PICKENS POLK RABUN ROCKDALE STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WALTON WHITE WHITFIELD NCC021-045-075-087-089-099-113-115-149-161-173-175-302340- NC Read more

WW 0571 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW VIH TO 30 N FAM TO 30 SSE BLV TO 20 W MVN TO 15 E SLO. ..KERR..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 571 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-025-033-047-055-059-065-069-077-079-081-087-101-127-133- 145-151-153-157-159-165-181-185-191-193-199-302340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLAY CRAWFORD EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-129-147-163-173-302340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK Read more

This is the second consecutive summer of drought conditions for Augusta County farmers. The dryness started earlier this year than in 2023, leaving the corn stalks brown and burnt-looking. The farmer estimated yield losses of 50% to 70%. WVIR-TV NBC29 (Charlottesville, Va.), July 30, 2024

MD 1751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1751 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...Far southern South Dakota into northern and northeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 302040Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the next couple of hours across north-central Nebraska. Thunderstorms will likely intensify, likely into one or more supercells, as they migrate east this evening. Watch issuance is likely to address this concern. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows deepening cumulus along a weak surface pressure trough and near a subtle surface low. A few deeper towers have been noted over the past 20 minutes, suggesting that MLCIN is quickly eroding as temperatures climb well into the 90s. The remnant outflow from an early-morning MCS lies immediately east of the initiation zone with relatively higher low-level moisture and east/southeasterly low-level winds. These conditions are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis estimates. Additionally, the easterly low-level flow under 30-40 knot mid-level winds are supporting elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values approaching 50 knots. As such, this environment should support well-organized supercells with an attendant threat for severe winds and very large hail (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter). Low-level veering may be sufficient for strong low-level mesocyclones, but somewhat high dewpoint depressions may limit the overall tornado potential - especially with westward extent closer to the initiation zone. Weak synoptic-scale forcing for ascent limits confidence in storm coverage to some degree, though recent CAM guidance appears to be capture observed trends well and suggests one or two supercells will become established this evening. Watch issuance will likely be needed as this threat materialized. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 40979933 41280020 41550057 41750074 42480132 42720150 43160145 43430123 43520080 43500038 43229892 42989799 42769716 42559669 42029641 41469640 41049661 40779701 40619744 40979933 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z As upper ridging builds throughout the week, hot and dry conditions are expected across much of the western US. Winds will remain too low (outside of any localized terrain effects) for any critical highlights over the next week, but the hot and dry conditions beneath this ridging will contribute to the continued curing of fuels. Beginning D4/Friday through D7/Monday, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across the Northwest as an upper trough approaches the West Coast and phases with a shortwave trough forecast to move around the western periphery of the ridge. The earliest chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will be D4/Friday across portions of northern California and into southern Oregon ahead of an approaching upper trough. However, current forecast sounding guidance leaves some uncertainty in whether the moisture will be sufficient for thunder occurrence. The best chances for dry thunder will be D5/Saturday, where better overlap of forcing for ascent and moisture occur over northern California into Southern Oregon. Some dry thunder occurrence over the Sierras is also possible, along with portions of northern Idaho and western Montana, where storms have the potential to develop over the higher terrain. Dry thunderstorm chances will persist D6/Sunday and D7/Monday across portions of eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Montana as the trough continues to move eastward. While there is still considerable uncertainty on the specific timing and locations of dry thunderstorm occurrence during this period, critically dry fuels will be receptive to any lightning based ignitions, and dry/gusty thunderstorm outflow could contribute to wildfire spread. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more