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WW 0568 Status Updates
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected today into tonight across a broad area from eastern Nebraska and Iowa into parts of the Midwest, Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians, with swaths of damaging winds possible within this corridor. Severe storms are also possible across parts of the northern Plains. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest to OH/TN Valleys... Very challenging meteorological scenario with highly variable guidance as far as MCS development/disposition today. However, a rather favorable set of ingredients will generally coincide, spanning east/northeast Nebraska into Iowa, northern Missouri and western Illinois, and to some extent even farther southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Very strong buoyancy will exist within this MCS/outflow-reinforced corridor, with a strong elevated mixed layer -- yet not overly warm aloft for the season -- atop a moist boundary layer. Seasonally strong west-northwesterly winds aloft will also reside in this general corridor, with potential for multiple east/southeastward-moving MCSs today and tonight. Swath of damaging wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) are plausible. With a remnant thunderstorm cluster across Illinois, some re-intensification of this convection may occur across the lower Ohio Valley toward the Tennessee Valley, with a modestly strong northwesterly flow regime and ample downstream instability. Isolated to scattered damaging wind should be the primary threat. Meanwhile, multiple thunderstorm clusters across Siouxland this morning from southeast South Dakota into northwest/western Iowa may continue to pose a severe risk, with some potential that these storms could merge/organize later today along the instability gradient. There is also potential that additional storm development may occur by late afternoon/early evening across northern Nebraska/far southern South Dakota near a surface low/troughs, with these storms potentially increasing and evolving into an MCS tonight, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Weak height falls amid moderate to strong instability may lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development along a surface trough/dryline across the Dakotas this afternoon. Moderate westerlies should support moderate deep-layer vertical shear around 30-35 kt, sufficient for a few organized storms capable of both large hail and damaging gusts. ...Northern New York to northern New England... Moderate buoyancy may develop this afternoon from northern New York into northern New England. While storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain, deep-layer shear and relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a couple modestly organized storms capable of locally damaging wind, and possibly some hail. ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity... A mid/upper-level trough and possibly an MCV will move across the Mid Atlantic vicinity later today. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from northern Virginia into parts of Pennsylvania. While there is some uncertainty regarding the extent of heating and destabilization, a couple stronger cells/clusters may become capable of producing isolated damaging winds. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/30/2024 Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE UIN TO 5 WSW PIA. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC017-107-125-129-137-167-179-301340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS LOGAN MASON MENARD MORGAN SANGAMON TAZEWELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE UIN TO 5 WSW PIA. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC017-107-125-129-137-167-179-301340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS LOGAN MASON MENARD MORGAN SANGAMON TAZEWELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE UIN TO 5 WSW PIA. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC017-107-125-129-137-167-179-301340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS LOGAN MASON MENARD MORGAN SANGAMON TAZEWELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE UIN TO 5 WSW PIA. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC017-107-125-129-137-167-179-301340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS LOGAN MASON MENARD MORGAN SANGAMON TAZEWELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE UIN TO 5 WSW PIA. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC017-107-125-129-137-167-179-301340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS LOGAN MASON MENARD MORGAN SANGAMON TAZEWELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0567 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE UIN TO 5 WSW PIA. ..GRAMS..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 567 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC017-107-125-129-137-167-179-301340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS LOGAN MASON MENARD MORGAN SANGAMON TAZEWELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 567 SEVERE TSTM IL 301115Z - 301500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Illinois * Effective this Tuesday morning from 615 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms with a history of severe-caliber wind gusts overnight should continue to move southeastward across the region this morning, with some severe wind potential persisting even if a weakening trend continues. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Springfield IL to 25 miles east northeast of Springfield IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 566... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Guyer Read more