SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z The current forecast remains on-track with no necessary updates or changes. See previous discussion for further detail. ..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the day. Along/south of the trough, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the Great Basin into the northern/central Rockies. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of ID and western MT during the afternoon and evening. While 0.6-0.9 inch PW will favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, 25-35 mph storm motions may tend to limit overall rainfall in any given area. Nevertheless, lightning-induced ignitions will be possible on the peripheries of rain cores, given dry fuels across the area. ...Dry/Windy - Great Basin into the Central Rockies... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield 5-10 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds from southern UT into WY -- with the strongest winds expected over WY. These dry/breezy conditions atop modestly receptive fuels will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0568 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LWD TO 15 SE OXV TO 45 NNE OXV. ..LEITMAN..07/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-067-149-301740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK PIKE IAC007-039-051-053-101-107-111-117-123-135-157-159-175-177-179- 185-301740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR JEFFERSON KEOKUK LEE LUCAS MAHASKA MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD UNION VAN BUREN WAPELLO WAYNE MOC001-007-041-045-079-081-103-111-115-121-127-129-137-163-171- 173-175-197-199-205-211-301740- Read more

Farmers irrigate heavily, hungry animals consume crops in northern West Virginia

1 year 1 month ago
A farmer near Wellsburg in Brooke County was using municipal water to irrigate his crops because his own drip irrigation was not delivering enough water to the crops. Five or more water lines were running continuously to sustain the crops, which may increase his water bill many times above the $100 that he usually pays. Crops that cannot be irrigated, like pumpkins, were succumbing to the drought and heat. The corn was just half of its usual height. The green beans were dying, and the potato crop yielded less than half of normal. When drought effects began about six weeks ago, the farmer and his employees began moving irrigation lines, which added as much as two hours per day of additional labor. While the drought and heat were hurting crops, large numbers of hungry wildlife were damaging crops as they satisfied their hunger by feasting on corn and green beans to an extent that farmers have not seen before. Some Brooke County livestock producers have opted to sell cattle because they did not have enough hay to feed their animals through the coming winter. The farmer has raised his prices for strawberries, raspberries and corn as yields were low. He was short on many types of produce. Fall activities will also feel the effects of the hot, dry summer. A giant pumpkin patch was wilting and dying, and the corn maze will not be all that challenging with three-foot-tall corn. The Wheeling Intelligencer (Wheeling, W.V.), July 30, 2024

SPC MD 1742

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Illinois and southern Indiana into north-central Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567... Valid 301409Z - 301615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a damaging wind risk will persist across southern Illinois within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 567. Areas across southern Indiana into adjacent north-central Kentucky are being monitored for possible downstream watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A small, but well organized bowing cluster of storms continues to track east/southeast across south-central Illinois this morning. This activity has produced gusts near 50 kt within the past hour. Around 30 kt effective shear magnitudes are likely sustaining organized activity as convection shifts east/southeast along an instability gradient oriented northwest to southeast across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity. A very moist downstream airmass is evident, with surface dewpoints in the 70s. With continued heating, boundary-layer inhibition is expected to quickly erode by midday. Damaging gusts may continue downstream of ongoing activity, especially if additional convection can develop on the southern flank of the ongoing cluster. Visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus ahead of the southern flank, so this evolution appears plausible. A downstream watch may be needed within the next hour or so if current trends persist/increase. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39868929 39908894 39748821 39118676 38488582 38088570 37778619 37818688 37818706 37898751 38188845 38518908 38968967 39358961 39868929 Read more

Hungry wildlife damaging crops in southwest Pennsylvania

1 year 1 month ago
The heat and lack of rain have reduced food resources for wildlife, leaving them seeking food in populated areas and in fields and farms. In Fayette County, hungry birds have ravaged his crops. Black birds damaged the sweet corn, shucking much of the ear. Crows ravaged the watermelons and tomatoes. Other area farmers have endured the same from wildlife. Deer have also devoured the white sweet corn, leaving no tassels or tops to pollinate. The Mon Valley Independent (Monessen, Pa.), July 30, 2024

SPC MD 1741

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Iowa...northern Missouri...and extreme west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301347Z - 301515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts are possible this morning and afternoon as a cluster of storms tracks southeast across southern Iowa into northern Missouri and extreme west-central Illinois. A watch may be needed this morning, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...A well organized cluster of storms currently moving into central Iowa has produced gusts near 50 kt within the past 30 minutes or so. This activity may be somewhat elevated in the wake of overnight convection. Nevertheless, 35-45 kt effective shear magnitudes and MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will likely maintain organization. While outflow from overnight convection has surged southward to near I-70 in Missouri, the airmass has shown signs of quick recovery, with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F noted in 13z surface obs. Clear skies ahead of the cluster will also allow for quick heating through the morning hours. As a result, downstream destabilization and erosion of capping is expected. The ongoing cluster of storms may continue to gradually intensify and pose a risk for damaging gusts into late morning/early afternoon as the downstream airmass continue to recover/destabilize. Given the effect of overnight convection on the airmass, there is some uncertainty in convective evolution and timing of possible watch issuance. Nevertheless, it appears possible a severe thunderstorm watch could be needed this morning across parts of the discussion area. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 42349441 42269405 41809260 41299159 40839101 40509093 40249100 39839175 39769254 39799287 39929347 40419440 41129519 41509531 41969529 42349441 Read more