Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will translate from the Northwest to the northern Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night while another mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Instability will be limited in both areas and therefore no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. A few thunderstorms may develop off the east coast of Florida but should quickly move away into the open Atlantic as the mid-level trough and surface low move east over the Gulf Stream. No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will translate from the Northwest to the northern Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night while another mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Instability will be limited in both areas and therefore no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. A few thunderstorms may develop off the east coast of Florida but should quickly move away into the open Atlantic as the mid-level trough and surface low move east over the Gulf Stream. No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will translate from the Northwest to the northern Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night while another mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Instability will be limited in both areas and therefore no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. A few thunderstorms may develop off the east coast of Florida but should quickly move away into the open Atlantic as the mid-level trough and surface low move east over the Gulf Stream. No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere, a few flashes with weak convection were noted earlier over southwest OR beneath cool temperatures aloft and in association with a now departing shortwave trough. A very low chance of thunder may linger in this area within the residual midlevel moist plume this evening. ..Jewell.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere, a few flashes with weak convection were noted earlier over southwest OR beneath cool temperatures aloft and in association with a now departing shortwave trough. A very low chance of thunder may linger in this area within the residual midlevel moist plume this evening. ..Jewell.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere, a few flashes with weak convection were noted earlier over southwest OR beneath cool temperatures aloft and in association with a now departing shortwave trough. A very low chance of thunder may linger in this area within the residual midlevel moist plume this evening. ..Jewell.. 02/24/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 23 23:43:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 23 23:43:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more