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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more