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MD 0119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN OREGON...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 0119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Areas affected...Northern Oregon...Southern Washington Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250043Z - 250245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Potential for a few gusts, some of which could be severe, over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing, with two more organized bands noted near the Portland Metro and across the Columbia Gorge. Though thermal profiles are poor, strong upper level forcing from a mid-level jet max is overspreading the region amid some MLCAPE around 100-240 J/kg. The increase in winds aloft can be noted in the VAD from RTX (Portland, OR), where speeds up to 50-60 kts are observed in the bottom 3 km. A few gusts around 50 mph were observed earlier in reporting sites near the Oregon coast. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are also in place regionally, with forecast soundings from the NAM/RAP suggesting profiles are deeply mixed. This will allow for potential for even low topped showers to mix down higher momentum gusts at times, some of which may approach severe limits. Given the rapid loss of daytime heating and poor thermal environment, this is expected to remain localized and a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR... LAT...LON 45522382 46112285 46352052 46991884 46871803 46621746 46201733 45731752 45311821 45071927 44862103 44582318 45522382 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave. Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core, with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down. Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast to account for this scenario, primarily this evening. Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave. Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core, with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down. Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast to account for this scenario, primarily this evening. Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave. Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core, with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down. Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast to account for this scenario, primarily this evening. Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave. Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core, with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down. Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast to account for this scenario, primarily this evening. Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 24 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 24 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more