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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more