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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of far West Texas and central to southern New Mexico. Morning surface observations show very dry conditions in place (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens) with a very dry residual mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion sampled in the 12z EPZ sounding. Winds increasing to around 15 mph should coincide with RH minimums in the low to mid teens per recent ensemble guidance, which has trended towards higher probabilities of sustained elevated fire weather conditions over a region with slowly increasing ERCs (which currently sit at around the 80-90th percentile). Forecast concerns regarding portions of WY and NE remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of far West Texas and central to southern New Mexico. Morning surface observations show very dry conditions in place (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens) with a very dry residual mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion sampled in the 12z EPZ sounding. Winds increasing to around 15 mph should coincide with RH minimums in the low to mid teens per recent ensemble guidance, which has trended towards higher probabilities of sustained elevated fire weather conditions over a region with slowly increasing ERCs (which currently sit at around the 80-90th percentile). Forecast concerns regarding portions of WY and NE remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more