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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no highlights introduced. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area to far eastern GA and portions of the Carolinas where pre-frontal winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph with RH reductions into the 30-35% range. Despite relatively high model agreement, the potential for cloud cover and late-afternoon/evening rain chances cast uncertainty onto the potential for seeing RH reductions reaching elevated thresholds. Additionally, localized elevated conditions are probable from south-central NM into central AZ within the Gila Region and along the Mogollon Rim. 15-25 mph winds appear likely as a surface low deepens across western AZ, but the overlap of strong winds, sub-20% RH, and sufficiently dry fuels is uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored for future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Western US ridging should persist into D2/Thursday forcing split mid-level flow over the central/eastern CONUS. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... In the wake of a cold front moving over the central and eastern US, breezy west/northwesterly winds are likely over much of the southeast and southern Appalachians. With gusts of 10-15 mph possible, dry downslope and continental trajectories should support low humidity through the afternoon. With ongoing drought and afternoon RH below 35% likely, some risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions is possible. The most likely corridor for fire-weather potential is expected across parts of eastern GA and the Carolinas D2/Thursday afternoon. Should winds trend stronger an Elevated area may be considered given near record high ERC values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Discussion... As a mid-level trough departs the East Coast early Friday, a clipper-type system will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes, reinforcing eastern U.S. cyclonic flow. In the West, a disturbance over the Desert Southwest is progged to shift eastward with time, downstream of a much strong upper cyclone approaching -- and eventually reaching -- the southern half of California. As the upper low gradually moves inland, cold air/steep lase rates aloft will support an increase in shower convection. A few low-topped thunderstorms will be possible overnight, and thus will maintain 10% thunder potential, though with somewhat of a northward areal shift from the prior forecast. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia Thursday. ...Discussion... An upper trough is forecast to shift eastward across the eastern states with time. Within the broader area of cyclonic flow, a shorter-wavelength trough is forecast to dig aggressively southeastward out of the Upper Midwest, across the Ohio Valley through the day, across the Appalachians during the evening, and then should reach the eastern seaboard by the end of the period. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft accompanying the upper trough will provide modest CAPE, with background ascent supporting development of scattered showers. A few lightning flashes will be possible within the evolving convection; the thunder area is being expanded to include portions of the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley where a couple of weak, low-topped storms may develop near peak heating. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected, with the eastern Pacific upper low expected to remain offshore through early Friday. ..Goss.. 02/26/2025 Read more