Aggregator

Trout grown at a hatchery in Monroe County were a little smaller than usual due to slightly reduced water flow in area streams as waterways had not fully recovered from last summer’s drought. WNEP (Moosic, Pa.), Feb 27, 2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest TX/the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. Recent guidance suggests 15-20 mph winds will likely develop across the TX Panhandle into much of OK by late afternoon as RH values fall into the mid to upper teens. Given an expanding swath of 80+ percentile ERC values across the region, fire weather concerns appears probable. Stronger winds are anticipated from northeast OK into portions of central MO and western IL ahead of a cold front, and some areas may see RH reductions into the 20-25% range. Consideration was given to expanding the new Elevated risk area east/northeast into these regions, but confidence on fuel status is more limited based on recent ERC and 10-hour fuel analyses. Forecast concerns regarding the central Plains remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more