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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more

Canyon Lake was 48.5% full and 29.5 feet low on Feb. 28. A new daily record low is set with each passing day as the lake has not been this low since it filled in the 1960s. All 23 boat ramps on the lake, including the one on the Guadalupe River just above the lake, were closed to public access. Only boat ramp 19 was open to members of Canyon Lake Marina. Now it is legal for the public to launch non-motorized watercraft like canoes or kayaks from county boat ramps 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 22, and 23. News 4 San Antonio (Texas), Feb 28, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. An active and progressive mid-level flow pattern will result in multiple strong troughs passing over the southern US through this weekend and next week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels. The presence of very strong winds, and multiple days of low RH will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains... A series of strong mid-level troughs will rapidly progress eastward over the Southern Plains late this weekend and early next week. The first trough (D3/Sun) will move rapidly across the TX Panhandle and western OK as a strong surface low deepens. In the wake of the low, southwesterly low-level flow, aided by a 60-80 kt 500 mb speed max, will likely reach 25-30 mph with higher gusts. Post-dryline conditions will support low RH through the afternoon. Given the presence of very dry and locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading, widespread, potentially significant, critical fire-weather conditions are likely. Some uncertainty remains on the exact corridor of critical conditions given differences in the track of the surface low and the potential for some precipitation Sunday evening. Westerly flow aloft will quickly strengthen again D4/Mon as the second larger trough rapidly deepens over the Four Corners. The strengthening flow aloft will overspread a very warm and dry air mass across eastern NM and western TX. The very strong kinematic fields will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late D4/Mon into D5/Tues. While the exact details on the placement and strength of the low remain unclear, widespread and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions are possible from eastern NM and western OK to central TX given the state of ongoing drought. Through the remainder of the week fire-weather concerns should be lower as cooler temperatures and some precipitation look to temporarily dampen fuels. ...Eastern US... As western US troughing intensifies through the week, eastern ridging should also steadily build, supporting a period of warm temperatures and dry conditions. As the strong trough/low move eastward over the central US D6/Wed, some strong winds along the cold front may overlap with the dry fuels. At least some risk for localized fire-weather conditions will be possible. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A Bethlehem farmer remarked on the brown color of his field, noting that it ought to be almost a green carpet or at least have green vegetation. The winter wheat ought to be three to six inches tall, but rows were not visible. WFMZ 69 News Online (Allentown, Pa.), Feb 26, 2025

A corn grower in San Patricio County halted planting due to freezing temperatures and dry soil. Farmers typically aim to get the crop planted before Valentine’s Day, so one would typically see planters in use. Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), Feb 27, 2025

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 28 00:58:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 28 00:58:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening, primarily across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is advancing across the OH/TN Valley region early this evening. Strong height falls will spread across the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas as the primary synoptic front shifts off the Atlantic Coast by 06z. Isolated thunderstorms continue ahead of a weaker, secondary surface boundary over the OH Valley, but this activity should gradually wane as the boundary layer cools and low-level lapse rates weaken. While a few storms may briefly produce small hail or gusty winds for the next hour or so, severe threat appears negligible the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening, primarily across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is advancing across the OH/TN Valley region early this evening. Strong height falls will spread across the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas as the primary synoptic front shifts off the Atlantic Coast by 06z. Isolated thunderstorms continue ahead of a weaker, secondary surface boundary over the OH Valley, but this activity should gradually wane as the boundary layer cools and low-level lapse rates weaken. While a few storms may briefly produce small hail or gusty winds for the next hour or so, severe threat appears negligible the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/28/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 27 23:46:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 27 23:46:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0120 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Areas affected...parts of Indiana and Ohio...and far northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272119Z - 272345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a couple marginally-severe hailstones are possible this afternoon across parts of Ohio, eastern Indiana, and far northern Kentucky. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A 500 mb trough axis is situated over portions of the Ohio Valley this afternoon with very cold temperatures aloft (approximately -30 C at 500 mb per RAP analyses). This is atop a post-frontal air mass with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 30s F, resulting in MLCAPE values of 300-400 J/kg with steep lapse rates. Convective temperature has been reached in portions of southwest Ohio, where low-topped convection has been ongoing, and additional low-topped convection is developing along a weak cold front across portions of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Given the steep lapse rates, low freezing level, straight hodograph, and the fact that most or all of the buoyancy is above the freezing level, a few marginally-severe hailstones may occur. The primary limiting factors for severe hail is expected to be the low-topped nature of the convection and slightly marginal deep-layer shear. Additionally, flow in the boundary layer is not overly strong, with 850 mb winds of approximately 30 kts, but convection may mix that down to the surface and provide some enhancement to produce a few damaging gusts. The convection, and therefore the severe threat, is expected to wane later in the afternoon and evening as storms move to the east and east-southeast with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39168552 39928598 40938617 41238537 41478430 41178300 40718205 40258168 39778163 39458178 39008204 38748242 38568349 38618437 38708486 39168552 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more