Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of intensifying thunderstorm development posing increasing potential for severe weather appears possible across the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. ...Discussion... As an initially strong, zonal jet over the western into central mid-latitude Pacific undergoes amplification, it appears that one downstream belt of westerlies will become increasingly prominent in a broad mean anticyclonic belt across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western United States. As one significant short wave trough emerging from the jet progresses into and through this regime across the eastern Pacific, a large downstream trough, already digging inland of the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, is forecast to remain progressive and pivot across the southern Rockies into Great Plains by late Monday night. It appears that this trough will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion remain at least a bit unclear, based on spread evident among the various model output. However, models continue to indicate that associated forcing for ascent will contribute to strengthening surface cyclogenesis by late Monday night, probably across eastern Colorado into western Kansas. As this occurs, increasing boundary-layer moisture (probably including surface dew points exceeding 60F) within the evolving warm sector is expected to eventually contribute to a corridor of destabilization supportive of intensifying thunderstorm development, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear. This may include most unstable CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg, coincident with strengthening of southwesterly flow around 500 mb to 70-90 kts across parts of central/north central Texas through eastern Oklahoma. There is continuing uncertainty concerning the extent to which near surface thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to damaging wind and/or tornado potential prior to 12Z Tuesday. However, given potentially significant conditional severe weather potential, low unconditional severe probabilities have been introduced across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly for late Monday night. ..Kerr.. 03/01/2025 Read more