Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky/West Virginia... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is currently digging across the upper MS Valley, and will extend across lower MI/IN region by 18z, before advancing into the middle Atlantic by late evening. Very cold temperatures are noted with this feature, and profiles should cool/steepen during the day as a secondary weak surface boundary advances southeast across the OH Valley. Latest model guidance suggests surface heating will aid steepening low-level lapse rates, and 0-3km values will likely approach 8-9 C/km by mid afternoon, despite surface temperatures only warming into the mid 40s-50s. As a result, forecast soundings yield several hundred J/kg SBCAPE within a strongly sheared west-northwesterly flow regime. Current thinking is scattered low-topped thunderstorms will evolve along the boundary by mid afternoon, then propagate southeast toward the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. While this activity will evolve within a weak-instability air mass, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more organized updrafts. At this time it appears the prospect for severe winds and hail are too low to warrant probabilities. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky/West Virginia... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is currently digging across the upper MS Valley, and will extend across lower MI/IN region by 18z, before advancing into the middle Atlantic by late evening. Very cold temperatures are noted with this feature, and profiles should cool/steepen during the day as a secondary weak surface boundary advances southeast across the OH Valley. Latest model guidance suggests surface heating will aid steepening low-level lapse rates, and 0-3km values will likely approach 8-9 C/km by mid afternoon, despite surface temperatures only warming into the mid 40s-50s. As a result, forecast soundings yield several hundred J/kg SBCAPE within a strongly sheared west-northwesterly flow regime. Current thinking is scattered low-topped thunderstorms will evolve along the boundary by mid afternoon, then propagate southeast toward the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. While this activity will evolve within a weak-instability air mass, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more organized updrafts. At this time it appears the prospect for severe winds and hail are too low to warrant probabilities. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky/West Virginia... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is currently digging across the upper MS Valley, and will extend across lower MI/IN region by 18z, before advancing into the middle Atlantic by late evening. Very cold temperatures are noted with this feature, and profiles should cool/steepen during the day as a secondary weak surface boundary advances southeast across the OH Valley. Latest model guidance suggests surface heating will aid steepening low-level lapse rates, and 0-3km values will likely approach 8-9 C/km by mid afternoon, despite surface temperatures only warming into the mid 40s-50s. As a result, forecast soundings yield several hundred J/kg SBCAPE within a strongly sheared west-northwesterly flow regime. Current thinking is scattered low-topped thunderstorms will evolve along the boundary by mid afternoon, then propagate southeast toward the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. While this activity will evolve within a weak-instability air mass, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more organized updrafts. At this time it appears the prospect for severe winds and hail are too low to warrant probabilities. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Mid and Upper Ohio Valley to the Carolinas/southern Virginia. ...Indiana/Ohio/Kentucky/West Virginia... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is currently digging across the upper MS Valley, and will extend across lower MI/IN region by 18z, before advancing into the middle Atlantic by late evening. Very cold temperatures are noted with this feature, and profiles should cool/steepen during the day as a secondary weak surface boundary advances southeast across the OH Valley. Latest model guidance suggests surface heating will aid steepening low-level lapse rates, and 0-3km values will likely approach 8-9 C/km by mid afternoon, despite surface temperatures only warming into the mid 40s-50s. As a result, forecast soundings yield several hundred J/kg SBCAPE within a strongly sheared west-northwesterly flow regime. Current thinking is scattered low-topped thunderstorms will evolve along the boundary by mid afternoon, then propagate southeast toward the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. While this activity will evolve within a weak-instability air mass, gusty winds and small hail may be noted with the more organized updrafts. At this time it appears the prospect for severe winds and hail are too low to warrant probabilities. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe thunderstorm threat is low. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Ohio Valley. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is primarily responsible for scattered convection that currently extends from western PA, arcing southwest along the Ohio River into southeast MO. While much of this activity is not producing lightning, isolated thunderstorms are noted along a corridor of somewhat stronger instability that extends into central OH. However, 00z sounding from ILN does not exhibit appreciable buoyancy, though lapse rates are fairly steep and moist. Deepest updrafts will continue to produce lightning for the next few hours, but overall thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated. ..Darrow.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe thunderstorm threat is low. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Ohio Valley. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is primarily responsible for scattered convection that currently extends from western PA, arcing southwest along the Ohio River into southeast MO. While much of this activity is not producing lightning, isolated thunderstorms are noted along a corridor of somewhat stronger instability that extends into central OH. However, 00z sounding from ILN does not exhibit appreciable buoyancy, though lapse rates are fairly steep and moist. Deepest updrafts will continue to produce lightning for the next few hours, but overall thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated. ..Darrow.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe thunderstorm threat is low. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Ohio Valley. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature is primarily responsible for scattered convection that currently extends from western PA, arcing southwest along the Ohio River into southeast MO. While much of this activity is not producing lightning, isolated thunderstorms are noted along a corridor of somewhat stronger instability that extends into central OH. However, 00z sounding from ILN does not exhibit appreciable buoyancy, though lapse rates are fairly steep and moist. Deepest updrafts will continue to produce lightning for the next few hours, but overall thunderstorms should remain mostly isolated. ..Darrow.. 02/27/2025 Read more

Growers in the Texas Winter Garden and lower Rio Grande Valley were dealing with the difficulties of water shortages and market fluctuations. The lower Rio Grande Valley, in particular, urgently needed water. AgriLife (Texas A&M), (College Station, Texas), Feb 25, 2025

While water levels throughout the Great Lakes continued their natural, gradual seasonal decline in the autumn, drought conditions in certain regions of the Great Lakes accelerated the water level decline in some of the lakes. Water levels in each of the Great Lakes, except for Lake Erie, were currently below long-term monthly averages. At the beginning of February and also for this time of year, Lake Superior was the lowest it has been since 2013, Lakes Huron-Michigan were the lowest since 2014, and Lake Ontario was the lowest since 2003. Lake Erie levels were the lowest since 2014, although they remained about 1 centimeter, or 0.39 inches, above the long-term average. Marine Link (Easton, Ct.), Feb 25, 2025

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 26 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 26 22:26:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to increase through the extended period with nearly daily potential for critical fire weather conditions across the Southwest/southern High Plains beginning D4/Saturday and persisting to D7/Tuesday. Agreement among long-range guidance continues to improve with most solutions showing a breakdown of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS. GOES-18 water-vapor imagery shows multiple upper-level troughs migrating across/into the northeast Pacific, which will be responsible for increasing fire weather potential beginning later this week. ...D3/Friday - Central Plains... An upper trough currently moving into southwest Canada is forecast to rapidly propagate southeastward into the northern Plains as it rounds the apex of the upper ridge late D2/Thur into D3/Fri. Robust surface cylcogenesis is expected across the upper MS River Valley as this occurs with an attendant increase in gradient winds across the Plains. Medium to long-range ensembles show a strong signal for 20+ mph winds behind a dry cold front across much of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and MN. 30-day precipitation totals are currently sitting at 5-25% of normal across much of NE and SD, and local offices report fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. As such, a wind-driven fire weather threat is probable across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ...D4/Sat to D7/Tue - Southwest/Southern High Plains... Precipitation has been minimal across the southern High Plains and Southwest over the past week with 30-day rainfall deficits on the order of 2-25% of normal for most locations. This lack of rainfall, combined with above-normal temperatures, has resulted in ERCs in the 75-90th percentile across eastern NM and southwest TX. With a conducive fuel environment already in place, fire weather potential will increase as a series of shortwave troughs move into the region this weekend into early next week. The first upper wave, currently off the CA coast, is forecast to move into AZ/NM by D4/Sat before migrating east into the southern Plains D5/Sun. Strengthening surface winds in the vicinity of an attendant surface low are expected to increase to 15-25 mph based on recent ensemble guidance. With no appreciable increase in moisture expected, critical RH values are likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. A second, more robust, upper trough is anticipated across the Southwest/southern Plains during the D6/Mon to D7/Tue period. Similar to the preceding days, strengthening winds attendant to a deepening surface low will promote widespread strong winds with most ensemble systems showing a strong signal for 20+ mph winds and some members, including the 12z deterministic GFS, showing potential for sustained 30 mph winds. While confidence in exact wind speeds is somewhat uncertain at this range, the overall signal for dry, windy conditions over dry fuels warrants risk probabilities for each day. Forecast uncertainties exist for each day of the D4/Sat to D7/Tue period. Where the lows begin to develop and track will have implications for the coverage of elevated/critical fire weather conditions, with recent GFS/GEFS runs showing stronger surface lows and more widespread coverage of critical conditions into the TX/OK Panhandles and western OK. Additionally, ECMWF/ECENS solutions hint at rain chances across parts of northwest TX/western OK over the weekend, which could limit fuel availability for early next week. Due to these uncertainties, higher risk probabilities are withheld, but further forecast refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding these details. ..Moore.. 02/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day. Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell.. 02/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/ ...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity, with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization, current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment. Read more