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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are likely from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a progressive shortwave trough will move eastward out of AZ/NM into the southern Plains, beneath the larger-scale upper ridge over the Plains. This wave will be over OK and TX at 00Z, with the midlevel speed max nosing toward the ArkLaTex. Substantial cooling aloft will occur with this system, resulting in steepening lapse rates and increasing instability. At the surface, a low will deepen gradually over OK, with a front/dryline extending south into central TX. Southerly surface winds ahead of the front will bring moisture northward, with near 60 F dewpoints as far north as southeast OK and southern AR. Though winds around 850 mb will veer to west/southwest, deep-layer shear will remain strong. The end result should be a concentrated area of hail and wind damage. ...Northeast TX...southeast OK...southern AR...northern LA... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms as moisture return occurs and the trough remains well to the west. However, rapid cooling aloft during the late afternoon and evening will overspread the diurnally warmed air mass, with MUCAPE to around 1500 J/kg developing east of the front which may be near I-35. Winds around 850 mb will become nearly westerly, but not particularly strong north of the midlevel jet, and this may prevent significant drying for a time and allow moist parcels near the frontal zone to reach the LFC. Given the steeper low-level lapse rates west of the front, the westerly flow may support heated parcels from the west with moisture mixing vertically near the front. Forecast soundings show a capped air mass for much of the day, but at least isolated cells are likely to develop with such steep lapse rates. The conditional risk of large hail is high, and any storms that develop are likely to be severe. Inverted-v profiles exist west of the front which supports the notion that at least a narrow zone will become uncapped. A storm or two could potentially transition to a bow echo with localized wind damage potential, as seen in a few CAMs, with perhaps a few storms persisting toward the MS River by 12Z Thursday. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The Elevated and Critical areas were expanded eastward over the southern Plains with this update, where the latest surface observations show an eastward extension of breezy/gusty surface winds and low RH atop increasingly receptive fuels. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025 Read more