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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

North Dakota Gov. Armstrong declared a statewide fire emergency and activated the State Emergency Operations Plans as warmer than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation has led to drought and increased the fire risk. The declaration has all state agencies like the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services, North Dakota Forest Service and North Dakota National Guard on standby. The order expires on May 31. KFGO-AM Mighty 790 (Fargo, N.D.), March 10, 2025

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 10 21:49:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 10 21:49:01 UTC 2025.

The Connecticut River Valley region was categorized as being in a Level 3 Critical Drought, a move from Level 2 Significant Drought. The state has dealt with nearly seven months of below normal precipitation. Massachusetts residents were urged to conserve water as much of the state remained in critical or significant drought after almost seven months of below normal precipitation. WFXT (Boston, Ma.), March 7, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more