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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing large hail and localized wind damage are possible from northern and eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe activity may persist as far east as western Mississippi by Thursday morning. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will eject across the southern Plains today with a belt of strong mid-level westerly flow across Texas and Louisiana. In response, a surface low will develop across western Texas and Oklahoma with increasing southerly flow and moisture return across Texas into Oklahoma and into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the dryline/front. Initially, low levels will remain strongly capped during the day/early afternoon, thereby inhibiting convection. As the mid-level low approaches, cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and lead to increasing instability. As forcing overspreads the dryline/cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of southeastern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana with the potential for damaging winds and large hail. ...Northeast TX...Southeast OK...Southern AR...Northern LA... As the surface low tracks eastward, upper-level flow will overspread the dryline/cold front across southeastern Oklahoma into northeast Texas. Models are in agreement that dew points in the upper 50s to 60s will reach the Red River by around 00z. Sounding profiles indicate that a strong capping inversion will remain in place for most of the morning and afternoon, with potential for strong daytime heating and mixing that may lower dew points. Regardless, it appears that MUCAPE aloft around 1000-1500 J/kg will develop above this, and that convective development should occur by the later afternoon/evening. Though there is some uncertainty on coverage, deep layer shear around 45-55 kts and steep lapse rates would support organized supercells with potential for very large hail and damaging winds. The large hail threat remains most likely where supercells can develop from northeast Texas into southeastern Oklahoma, where forcing will intersect the dryline/cold front. This is further supported by signal for development in most CAM guidance as well as ensemble guidance from HREF, which develops UH tracks across this region and has signal in paint balls for >40 dbz development. As convection continues to develop and move eastward with time, some upscale growth will be possible. The threat will likely transition to primarily damaging wind into portions of southern Arkansas and Mississippi before storms weaken in the less favorable air mass. ..Thornton/Goss/Squitieri.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy around MLCAPE 250 J/kg across portions of southern California and southern/central Arizona. Overall, shear profiles remain weak and severe storms are not expected. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy around MLCAPE 250 J/kg across portions of southern California and southern/central Arizona. Overall, shear profiles remain weak and severe storms are not expected. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... Recent radar and satellite show that a few isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the mid-level low moving inland across California/southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening, spreading further east into central/southern Arizona as forcing increases inland. Cooling aloft will allow for modest buoyancy around MLCAPE 250 J/kg across portions of southern California and southern/central Arizona. Overall, shear profiles remain weak and severe storms are not expected. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 03/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 11 23:40:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 11 23:40:01 UTC 2025.

Delaware had more than 420 fires statewide from November 2024 through February 2025. The Delaware Forest Service responded to 15 of those blazes. On average, from 2020 to 2023, the Delaware Forest Service responded to five wildfires a year, but in 2024 it was called to 22 wildfires. Morning Ag Clips (Greenwich, N.Y.), March 11, 2025

The Delaware Forest Service urged all residents to refrain from outdoor burning as drought and current weather conditions have led to an increase in wildfires in the state. Morning Ag Clips (Greenwich, N.Y.), March 11, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions are probable. ...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. ...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains... The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still support high-end fire potential. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday -- where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX. Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more