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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. The latest surface observations show high-end critical to extremely critical meteorological conditions developing across the Trans-Pecos (west of the Extremely Critical highlights). However, less fuel loading in this region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk compared to areas farther east -- precluding an upgrade here. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. Elsewhere, dry/breezy conditions may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions across portions of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, though a lack of stronger sustained surface winds precludes the addition of highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject from the southern Rockies today, supporting surface low development across the Southern Plains. A dryline, pendant from the surface low, will surge eastward toward the I-35 corridor in Texas during the afternoon, with very dry and windy conditions behind the dryline supporting very dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid RH dipping to at least 15 percent across much of the southern High Plains, warranting the continuation of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, much of western into central Texas may experience RH lowering to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds reach 30 mph over several locales, for at least a few hours. Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced for the Edwards Plateau in southwestern Texas, where these dangerous meteorological surface conditions will overspread dry fuels that are highly receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue eastward across the southeastern states on Thursday, with midlevel speed max traversing the northern Gulf. The trough will be located over AL at midday, with height rises on the back side of the trough across MS and southwest AL during the afternoon. Very cold temperatures aloft will exist with this system, which will contribute to destabilization despite less-than-optimal moisture content. Elsewhere, a large and deep upper trough will progress across the West, with an intense upper vort max and jet streak moving into the southern to central High Plains by Friday morning. Thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning with this system. ...Eastern MS...AL...Western GA...FL Panhandle... Areas of early day thunderstorms appear likely over northern MS, beneath the upper low. Hail will be possible given such cold temperatures aloft. Farther south, uncertainty is high for any leftover convection or outflows coming in from the west. If a more robust convective system can persist overnight across AR, then isolated damaging gusts could occur. Later in the day, heating will steepen low-level lapse rates into AL, GA and FL. However, the trough will continue moving rather quickly, which may tend to shunt the more favorable ascent eastward with time. A small area of favorable lift and destabilization may develop over southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle, with large hail possible given long hodographs and cool air aloft. ..Jewell.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...North Texas/Southeast Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough with an attendant 70-90+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level jet will advance eastward across the southern Plains today. A related surface low should gradually consolidate over OK and likewise develop slowly eastward through the period. Shallow low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of a dryline that will mix eastward across parts of central TX through late this afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the mid 50s to low 60s. A pronounced cap evident on the 12Z FWD sounding will be slow to erode, and this will likely inhibit robust thunderstorms from developing until at least late afternoon (21Z or later). Even so, mid-level temperatures will cool through the day as the shortwave trough approaches, and steep lapse rates aloft in combination with daytime heating will also aid in the development of around 1000-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE across northeast TX/southeast OK ahead of the dryline. While low-level winds are expected to remain fairly modest, strengthening mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear should support organized convection. While there is still some uncertainty regarding how warm/moist the boundary layer will become through heating, it seems likely that attempts at robust convective initiation will occur by late afternoon/early evening across north-central TX into southeast OK as convergence increases along/near the dryline. Any convection that can develop and persist will likely become supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail (perhaps up to 2-2.5 inch diameter). Amalgamation/upscale growth may occur with this activity through the evening across parts of the ArkLaTex, with some risk for damaging winds with any sustained cluster continuing eastward over the lower MS Valley overnight. The tornado threat remains less clear, with modest/shallow low-level moisture and generally weak low-level winds potentially limiting factors. Still, a chance for a tornado or two may exist with any sustained supercell this evening as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens, especially in the ArkLaTex region. ...Coastal Southern California... Short-term guidance shows a low-topped band of convection will move across parts of coastal southern CA in advance of an approaching mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific. While a strong gust cannot be ruled out with this activity, the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...North Texas/Southeast Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough with an attendant 70-90+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level jet will advance eastward across the southern Plains today. A related surface low should gradually consolidate over OK and likewise develop slowly eastward through the period. Shallow low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of a dryline that will mix eastward across parts of central TX through late this afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the mid 50s to low 60s. A pronounced cap evident on the 12Z FWD sounding will be slow to erode, and this will likely inhibit robust thunderstorms from developing until at least late afternoon (21Z or later). Even so, mid-level temperatures will cool through the day as the shortwave trough approaches, and steep lapse rates aloft in combination with daytime heating will also aid in the development of around 1000-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE across northeast TX/southeast OK ahead of the dryline. While low-level winds are expected to remain fairly modest, strengthening mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear should support organized convection. While there is still some uncertainty regarding how warm/moist the boundary layer will become through heating, it seems likely that attempts at robust convective initiation will occur by late afternoon/early evening across north-central TX into southeast OK as convergence increases along/near the dryline. Any convection that can develop and persist will likely become supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail (perhaps up to 2-2.5 inch diameter). Amalgamation/upscale growth may occur with this activity through the evening across parts of the ArkLaTex, with some risk for damaging winds with any sustained cluster continuing eastward over the lower MS Valley overnight. The tornado threat remains less clear, with modest/shallow low-level moisture and generally weak low-level winds potentially limiting factors. Still, a chance for a tornado or two may exist with any sustained supercell this evening as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens, especially in the ArkLaTex region. ...Coastal Southern California... Short-term guidance shows a low-topped band of convection will move across parts of coastal southern CA in advance of an approaching mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific. While a strong gust cannot be ruled out with this activity, the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards. ...North Texas/Southeast Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A shortwave trough with an attendant 70-90+ kt west-southwesterly mid-level jet will advance eastward across the southern Plains today. A related surface low should gradually consolidate over OK and likewise develop slowly eastward through the period. Shallow low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of a dryline that will mix eastward across parts of central TX through late this afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally remaining in the mid 50s to low 60s. A pronounced cap evident on the 12Z FWD sounding will be slow to erode, and this will likely inhibit robust thunderstorms from developing until at least late afternoon (21Z or later). Even so, mid-level temperatures will cool through the day as the shortwave trough approaches, and steep lapse rates aloft in combination with daytime heating will also aid in the development of around 1000-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE across northeast TX/southeast OK ahead of the dryline. While low-level winds are expected to remain fairly modest, strengthening mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear should support organized convection. While there is still some uncertainty regarding how warm/moist the boundary layer will become through heating, it seems likely that attempts at robust convective initiation will occur by late afternoon/early evening across north-central TX into southeast OK as convergence increases along/near the dryline. Any convection that can develop and persist will likely become supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail (perhaps up to 2-2.5 inch diameter). Amalgamation/upscale growth may occur with this activity through the evening across parts of the ArkLaTex, with some risk for damaging winds with any sustained cluster continuing eastward over the lower MS Valley overnight. The tornado threat remains less clear, with modest/shallow low-level moisture and generally weak low-level winds potentially limiting factors. Still, a chance for a tornado or two may exist with any sustained supercell this evening as a southwesterly low-level jet gradually strengthens, especially in the ArkLaTex region. ...Coastal Southern California... Short-term guidance shows a low-topped band of convection will move across parts of coastal southern CA in advance of an approaching mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific. While a strong gust cannot be ruled out with this activity, the overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited for low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/12/2025 Read more