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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong), and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valley vicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley, though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence. Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow, swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into the Mid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist, especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more