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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded the Critical risk area into the Texas Big Bend. 12Z high resolution guidance and HREF probabilities suggest several hours of critical fire weather conditions across this region later this afternoon. These environmental parameters combined with ongoing drought conditions in the region should bring critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

North Middleton Township authorities in Cumberland County have announced a 30-day burn ban effective March 12 after a meeting between the Township Fire Chief and Emergency Management Coordinator. The burn ban was issued because the drought conditions elevated the wildfire danger. FOX 43 (York, Pa.), March 13, 2025

MD 0166 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northern MS into northern/central AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131259Z - 131430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have gradually increased this morning near and in advance of a compact midlevel low centered near Memphis. The 12Z JAN and BMX soundings depicted steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft (near -20C at 500 mb), which will support potential for localized strong storms through the morning, despite generally modest effective shear across the region. Storms may increase in coverage as moistening continues near the base of the EML. This convection is currently expected to remain rather disorganized, but isolated hail and perhaps localized strong/damaging gusts may become possible with time this morning. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32788694 32998796 33098837 33188901 33328944 33988951 34788922 34648768 34478707 34238632 34008592 33438580 32958621 32848644 32788694 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more