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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...20Z Update... No changes required to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama and far western Georgia on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough will move quickly east across the Gulf Coast states, and completely offshore by late evening. High pressure will extend westward toward FL, which in combination with increasingly westerly winds aloft, will minimize moisture return over parts of the area. To the west, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will move into the Great Basin and Southwest during the day, moving quickly toward the central and southern Plains by 12Z Friday and providing windy conditions. ...Southeast... Dewpoints well into the 50s will exist across the lower MS Valley eastward across AL and GA, with lower 60s F closer to the Gulf Coast. Little in the way of synoptic boundaries will be present at the surface, but outflows and/or ongoing thunderstorms may provide further focus for daytime development from northern MS across AL and into western GA and the FL Panhandle. Areas of heating along with strong northwest flow aloft may support strong to severe storms ongoing throughout the day, with hail and localized wind potential. Given the flow regime, a cell or two may persist with hail potential east of the moist axis. ..Jewell.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more