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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

MD 0161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Areas affected...parts of central and southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101500Z - 101700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development remains possible into mid to late afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail appear the primary potential hazards, but a short-lived tornado or two might still be possible, particularly near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach this afternoon. DISCUSSION...The center of developing surface cyclone is now east of the Georgia coast, and forecast to undergo more substantive deepening while migrating northeastward offshore of the South Carolina coast through 18-20Z. As this proceeds, it appears that modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will shrink as flow around 850 mb veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. This will coincide with the continued southward advancement of a surface cold front trailing the cyclone across the central through southern peninsula. Still, boundary-layer warming, aided by insolation, appears likely to maintain modest destabilization, within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content characterized by dew points near 70f and precipitable water on the order of 1.75+ inches. In the presence of continuing strong deep-layer shear, beneath 50-70+ kt flow around 500 mb, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. These may primarily pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail, but a short-lived tornado or two might still not be entirely out of the question. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26358203 27998120 28678064 27257998 25578086 25868185 26358203 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition, dry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions (especially in the gap flow areas) today. However, these conditions and receptive fuels appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition, dry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions (especially in the gap flow areas) today. However, these conditions and receptive fuels appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition, dry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions (especially in the gap flow areas) today. However, these conditions and receptive fuels appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition, dry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions (especially in the gap flow areas) today. However, these conditions and receptive fuels appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more