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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains. Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas. Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime. ...North-Central High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains. Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas. Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime. ...North-Central High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains. Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas. Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime. ...North-Central High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains. Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas. Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime. ...North-Central High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains. Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas. Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime. ...North-Central High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more