Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early, should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across, Texas. ...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon hours. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early, should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across, Texas. ...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon hours. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early, should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across, Texas. ...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon hours. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early, should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across, Texas. ...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon hours. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early, should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across, Texas. ...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon hours. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early, should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across, Texas. ...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon hours. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more