Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OZARK PLATEAU REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Areas affected...Ozark Plateau Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230327Z - 230530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail may accompany storms across the Ozark Plateau the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Weak, low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching southeast KS late this evening. Partly in response to this feature, LLJ is strengthening across central OK into southwest MO. VAD profile from INX/SGF both exhibit intense 0-3 SRH and low-level warm advection will focus ascent across the Ozark Plateau over the next several hours. While moisture is advancing northeast in conjunction with this LLJ, 00z sounding from OUN depicted only 0.82 PW; however, 0-6km lapse rates are very steep and this will aid buoyancy as moisture surges into southern MO. Over the last hour or so, convection has begun to deepen along the nose of the LLJ, and this should continue over the next few hours. Wind profiles favor organized rotating updrafts, and a few supercells may emerge. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield the most MUCAPE, hence hail will be the primary risk with the most robust updrafts. If more organized convection develops, a severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37059501 37479415 37229268 36589248 36439336 36609474 37059501 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 22 22:25:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 22 22:25:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more