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WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0060 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...much of central/eastern Arkansas...northwestern Mississippi...western and middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231829Z - 232100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 3-6 PM CDT. This may include a few supercells capable of producing large hail, and perhaps the risk for a tornado or two across western into middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of northwestern Mississippi/southern Kentucky. Trends are being monitored for one or more severe weather watches. DISCUSSION...Latest model output suggests that the primary short wave trough is beginning to pivot northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a less prominent mid-level perturbation, but strongest lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, forecast to continue east-northeastward through the Ohio Valley. It appears that this will include an intensifying southwesterly jet core, in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb, across and northeast of the Kentucky Bluegrass. Within a moistening pre-cold frontal environment trailing this feature, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that flow around 850 mb will tend to veer, but may be maintained in excess of 30-40 kt across western into middle Tennessee through mid to late afternoon, while low-level hodographs undergo more substantive shrinking into central/southern Arkansas. Still, beneath a capping elevated mixed-layer across the Ark-La-Tex into Mid South, the low-level moisture return, coupled with increasing insolation, is contributing to substantive boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include CAPE on the order of 2000 to 1000 J/kg (from southwest to northeast), in the presence of weakening mid-level inhibition, within the next few hours. As the leading edge of cooling aloft gradually overspreads the Mid South toward Ark-La-Tex, guidance indicates that the initiation of scattered, but increasing, thunderstorm development is probable by 20-23Z. Stronger storms will pose a risk for producing large hail. Where low-level hodographs remain more enlarged and clockwise curved, a couple of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes may not be out of the question across northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35689218 36519074 36788681 35588724 34818801 34149045 33839197 33859373 35089314 35689218 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more