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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more