Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Central Plains and Midwest D3/Sunday. Thereafter, the synoptic pattern will become fairly persistent with a long-wave trough encompassing the eastern half of CONUS, and ridging present over the Rockies and Southwest. ...Central and Southern Plains... A deepening surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest is expected to accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough D3/Sunday. An associated tightening pressure gradient across the Central and Northern Great Plains will support breezy west-northwest surface winds there, while a cold front dives south in the lee of the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Although RH will likely remain just above critical thresholds within a cooler air mass, these areas continue to remain unseasonably dry with receptive fuels for fire ignition and spread present. Therefore, two low probability areas for critical fire weather conditions have been introduced from western NE/northern KS, and western OK/northwestern TX. By D4/Monday a surface high over the Missouri River Valley will migrate slowly southward, shunting low-level moisture to the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, lee troughing will commence across the High Plains with accompanying southerly surface winds developing within dry antecedent conditions over western OK. A 40% area has been introduced here for D4/Monday, as projected ERC percentile estimates continue to indicate receptive fuel states across this region. Another cold front will result in breezy northwest winds developing across the Central Plains (NE) D5/Tuesday, and although a cooler air mass should keep relative humidity from falling into critical limits, deteriorating fuel conditions are anticipated given a lack of rainfall. After early next week, rainfall probabilities will begin to increase across most of the CONUS along frontal boundaries and in association with a southern stream Pacific shortwave trough entering the Southern Plains. This should limit the overall potential for significant fire weather concerns. ..Barnes/Williams.. 03/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 21 01:00:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 21 01:00:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

Strong winds in drought-stricken areas of the southern U.S. have picked up dust and carried it to other parts of the country. Rain has deposited the dust, leaving spots on cars and windows. KTVO (Kirksville, Mo.), March 18, 2025

The South Texas Botanical Gardens & Nature Center's annual Big Bloom Plant Sale has been canceled due to the drought in the Corpus Christi area. Organizers thought that it would be irresponsible to encourage plant purchases while water conservation was being urged. The sale is typically held the first Saturday in April. Caller Times (Corpus Christi, Texas), March 19, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 20 22:06:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 20 22:06:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more